Best Supporting Actress Oscars Predictions (December)

In the last update, a nomination for Maria Bakalova’s scene-stealing turn in Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm still seemed a longshot. It’s amazing what can happen in one month during awards season. Bakalova has since won Best Supporting Actress with the critics groups of Boston Online, Chicago, Florida, Indiana, and New York, putting her firmly in the race.

Hot on Bakalova’s heels is Minari‘s Youn Yuh-Jung, who has essentially won everything Bakalova hasn’t. Youn has taken Best Supporting Actress wins from the critics groups of Boston, Los Angeles, and Sunset Circle, and it seems unfathomable both won’t score Oscar nominations.

But we mustn’t get ahead of ourselves. Critics awards can ultimately mean absolutely nothing to the Oscar race. Lest we forget critical darlings like Toni Collette, Ethan Hawke, and Lupita Nyong’o, who all failed to receive an Oscar nomination despite dominating with the critics groups. Bakalova and Youn are making headlines early in the race, and that has to count for something.

When we get down to the true pre-season ceremonies, it’s still more than likely to be a three-horse race between Amanda Seyfriend, Ellen Burstyn, and Olivia Colman. It’s surprising Colman and Burstyn haven’t received any love from the critics groups so far. But the campaigns for The Father and Pieces of a Woman have barely begun, so that could explain it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)
2. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
3. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari (A24)
5. Maria Bakalova – Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Candice Bergen – Let Them All Talk (HBO Max)
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Olivia Cooke – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian (STX Films)
Nicole Kidman – The Prom (Netflix)
Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite (NEON)
Talia Ryder – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Charlene Swankie – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Helena Zengel – News of the World (Universal Pictures)