With the Oscars shortlists unveiled in late December, we now know the final 10 films in official contention for the five nomination spots for Best Visual Effects. The most glaring omissions would be Everything Everywhere All at Once and RRR; both of which seemed likely on the cusp of making it into the final five nominees, but now fade off into the distance.
It’s going to be hard to keep writing this particular category piece each month and not pretend this race was over before it even began. From the moment the December 2022 release date for Avatar: The Way of Water was finally confirmed, we knew there was really no doubt it was winning Best Visual Effects. There’s possibly an argument to be made that some voters remember picking its predecessor for this category back in 2009 and won’t be keen to do it again, but they won’t be the majority and very little stands in the way of the sequel claiming this prize too.
That leaves us pundits to focus more intently on which four other films will also nab a nomination and hope for some sort of a miracle upset we haven’t seen in this category since Ex Machina back in 2015. Frankly, as of right now, the only other “safe” nomination seems to be Top Gun: Maverick, which would likely win this category in a cake walk, if not for those pesky blue Na’vi.
That really leaves the other three slots wide open. It’s wise to presume one of the two Marvel films on the shortlist will make it through, possibly even both like we saw last year. If Netflix rally behind All Quiet on the Western Front, it could definitely sneak in. The fact it landed on five shortlisted categories is hard to ignore. The Visual Effects Society will unveil their noms on January 17 and that should make this race a little clearer.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS PREDICTIONS:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney Studios)
4. The Batman (Warner Bros.)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Walt Disney Studios)
IN CONTENTION
All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (Warner Bros.)
Jurassic World: Dominion (Universal Pictures)
Nope (Universal Pictures)
Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios)
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