With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. Now that BAFTA and SAG have had their say, we have four actors with nominations from those two groups plus the Golden Globe Awards and the Critics Choice Awards. Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), and Colman Domingo (Rustin) haven’t missed a beat all season and you’d have to think they’re all safely in the top four.
However, something about Domingo’s run is giving me flashbacks to Viola Davis (The Woman King) last year where she seemed destined for an Oscar nod and still missed out. But Davis fell afoul of a bizarre late campaign for someone else and we can’t really say that could happen to Domingo. He’s been appearing at every awards show and clearly campaigning his butt off, so I hope he’s not headed for a shocking snub.
That leaves the final spot up for grabs. And one would think it would be going to seven-time nominee Leonardo DiCaprio. But his snubs at both BAFTA and SAG were extremely eye-opening and I think maybe it’s just a case of “well, you don’t really need another nomination.” I think the overall adoration for American Fiction is enough to get Jeffrey Wright over the line. The fact he got in at SAG over Leo proves the love is there from his fellow actors.
I really, really, really wanted to be right that Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) was waiting in the wings to nab that last place. But the fact he couldn’t even score a BAFTA nomination on home soil where two of his co-stars and his director landed nods was really the end of his Oscar chances. It could still happen, but it doesn’t feel likely.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Colman Domingo – Rustin (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – CCA, GG, SAG
Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures / Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
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