With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And, with BAFTA nominations coming five days after the Academy’s announcement, we’re flying without that typical precursor stat. At least we have their longlists for some reference.
Much like almost every other category, it feels like we’ve got four almost certainties for Best Actor with the fifth spot up for grabs. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) all have nominations at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, the Actor Awards, and appear on the BAFTA longlist. There may have been some question marks around Jordan in the initial stages of the season, but a snub now would cause an epic backlash for the Academy.
In a bizarre turn of events, Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) is following the exact same trajectory as fellow Brazilian Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) last season. Both won the Golden Globe in their respective drama lead acting categories. Both missed nominations from SAG. And both failed to appear on the BAFTA longlist. Torres still netted an Oscar nod. Moura will too.
And this is where things get difficult to predict. We’ve got Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), and Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) all in contention for that final spot. My Australian heart is desperately hoping Edgerton makes it through. He’s on the BAFTA longlist to add to his CCA and GG nods. But missing SAG was a big dent in his campaign. Still, his film scored a PGA nod and stands a solid chance of a Best Picture nomination. Don’t rule the Aussie out completely.
Hawke and Plemons are also on the BAFTA longlist. Both got in with SAG. Hawke has a CCA nod, whereas Plemons does not. Plemons is in a likely Best Picture nominee, so does that give him the edge? It’s another coin flip situation where it could go either way. I’m giving the advantage to Hawke. He’s been campaigning hard, and it’s always unwise to doubt the ability of Sony Pictures Classics to secure a nomination for a veteran performer.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (A24) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (NEON) – CCA, GG
4. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
Alternate: Jesse Plemons – Bugonia (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, GG, SAG
