With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. For all that was made of the utter embarrassment of riches of Best Actress contenders this season, we’ve somehow ended up with a top four consensus who all earned nominations from BAFTA, the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, and the SAG Awards.
Demi Moore (The Substance), Mikey Madison (Anora), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) have made it through awards season completely unscathed and it’s difficult to see why all four don’t land Oscar nominations. That being said, Margot Robbie (Barbie) went through this exact scenario last year and still missed out.
Could that happen to one of these four actresses this year? I’d say Erivo feels the most vulnerable, purely because her snub would seem very reminiscent of Robbie’s i.e. the star of a box office success story whose film picks up a huge tally of nominations but not for its leading lady. But I think a performance as grand as Erivo’s with a stunning moment like “Defying Gravity” is simply too big to ignore. And the backlash would be severe.
So, much like many categories this year, that leaves us with that fifth spot up for grabs. Angelina Jolie (Maria) felt like a sure thing until it wasn’t. Her failure to land a SAG nod or even be long-listed with BAFTA was the death knell of her campaign. Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) started off strong with a Best Actress win at Venice, but she’s faded completely. That SAG nod for Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) was a big coup, but is it enough?
It seems that final spot is coming down to a battle between Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths). I hate, hate, HATE the fact Jean-Baptiste isn’t a total lock for a nomination. Her performance is truly something else compared to pretty much everyone else this season. And there’s every chance she gets in, especially given she won the Los Angeles, New York, and National Society of Film Critics trifecta. But so did Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky) in 2008 and she was absent with the Academy. The irony the same fate will likely befall another actress from a Mike Leigh film.
I think that a number of factors lean towards a nomination for Torrest. Firstly, her unexpected Golden Globe victory where she gave a humble speech and was the talk of the town just days before Oscar nomination voting commenced. Secondly, the delay in announcing the nominations and the extension of the voting period surely helped her campaign, given many voters may have finally sat down to watch I’m Still Here after her Globe win. And, finally, she has the buzz. Sony Pictures Classics has now thrown everything they can at her campaign and there is so much chatter about her out there, which could be enough to push her across the line.
Look, I’d love a scenario where both Torres and Jean-Baptiste get in. They both deserve to be there and it’s frustrating to make such a choice. Maybe Jean-Baptiste takes a spot away from Gascón or Erivo, but it doesn’t feel likely. As with most recent years, this category was simply too stacked and we were always heading for painful snubs.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) – Gotham, Spirit, GG, CCA
2. Mikey Madison – Anora (Neon) – Gotham, Spirit, GG, CCA
3. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – EFA, GG, CCA
4. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked (Universal Pictures) – GG, CCA
5. Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG
Alternate: Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) – BAFTA, CCA, Gotham
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