With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. With the USC Scripter nominations delayed due to the Los Angeles wildfires, we head into Oscar nominations without that as a precursor for Best Adapted Screenplay. Sure, there are the WGA nominations, but with so many major contenders ineligible with the WGA, they’re rather pointless to look at.
That being said, this is one of the easier categories to predict and it’s very likely we’ll simply see a repeat of the five BAFTA nominees; Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and A Complete Unknown. All but the latter also scored nominations from the Critics Choice Awards. The first two also nabbed Golden Globe nods. It’s a pretty locked category, to be frank.
Is there a spoiler waiting in the wings for a possible surprise? Maybe Dune: Part Two, but the fact its predecessor landed a nomination here likely works against it. If the Academy really go crazy for Wicked, it could sneak in with a screenplay nod. And then there’s the real wildcard The Room Next Door. The film hasn’t taken flight this season, but we know how much the Academy loves Pedro Almodóvar, so you never know.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Conclave (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC
Peter Straughan
2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, EFA, GG
Jacques Audiard
3. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
4. Sing Sing (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, USC
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, WGA, USC
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
Alternate: Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) – CCA, WGA
Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts
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