With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. In the battle for Best Director, we’ve got four filmmakers with the four key precursor nominations of BAFTA, DGA, the Golden Globe Awards, and the Critics Choice Awards. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Sean Baker (Anora), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), and Edward Berger (Conclave) haven’t missed a step all season, so they’re all safe, right?
Well, the directing line-up tends to have a surprise or two up its sleeve and a shocking snub could be awaiting one of these directors. Either Corbet or Audiard missing feels unfathomable, but Berger has been here after he missed a nomination for All Quiet on the Western Front in 2022. Baker directed a film that’s inherently a comedy and that could work against him à la Peter Farrelly (Green Book) in 2018.
I think we’re really just squabbling over who makes it in to take that final spot. Honestly, it’s staggering Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) won’t be there, especially after the backlash surrounding his snub for the predecessor. While he made it in with BAFTA and CCA (given they have six nominees), you can’t ignore his failures to secure nominations from either the DGA or the Globes. Maybe they’re just going to wait for Dune: Messiah to give him his overdue flowers.
It could be RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys). He won at the Gotham Awards and he’s picked up a handful of prizes from the critics. He nabbed a DGA nomination for First-Time Feature. But you can’t deny the campaign for his film has never really gotten off the ground. If Nickel Boys can make it into the Best Picture ten, maybe Ross sneaks in here too.
I think that final spot comes down to two female filmmakers; Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) and Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light). Much was made of India’s failure to select Kapadia’s film as its submission for Best International Feature. Such a thing worked in the favour of eventual Best Director nominee Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) last year, but her film was a broader contender overall. You’re unlikely to see All We Imagine as Light show up in any other categories, so it would be rather strange to see Kapadia as its lone nomination. But never say never.
The buzz surrounding The Substance has only grown stronger as the weeks have progressed. Demi Moore is now assured of a Best Actress nomination and the film is likely picking up at least 3 or 4 other nods including Best Picture. I think the desire to see Fargeat recognised here will be too strong for voters to ignore. Horror is rarely recognised, so this would be a marquee moment for the Academy.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG, Spirit
2. Sean Baker – Anora (Neon) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG, Gotham, Spirit
3. Edward Berger – Conclave (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG
4. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, EFA, GG
5. Coralie Fargeat – The Substance (MUBI) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
Alternate: RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios) – CCA, DGA (First-Time), Gotham
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