With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. It’s no exaggeration to say there’s really only one certainty for a Best Documentary nomination and that’s No Other Land. While it oddly missed PGA and DGA nominations, it scored wins at the Gotham Awards, the European Film Awards, the International Documentary Association, and the Cinema Eye Honors to add to its BAFTA nomination.
The other strongest contender for a nomination appears to be Daughters with nods from BAFTA, Critics Choice Awards, Cinema Eye Honours, and DGA. Likewise with Porcelain War which landed with CEH, DGA, and PGA. The combination of CCA, DGA, and IDA makes Sugarcane look solid as well and it’s hard to ignore the CEH, DGA, EFA, Gotham, and IDA nominations of Soundtrack to a Coup d’etat.
But don’t be surprised to see Will & Harper take one of their spots. Netflix has managed to nab two documentary nominations in one year several times and that BAFTA nomination was a big boost to its campaign. This is a wildly unpredictable category and films like Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, and The Remarkable Life of Ibelin could easily make an appearance too.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. No Other Land (no U.S distribution) – BAFTA, CEH, EFA, Gotham, IDA
2. Daughters (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, CEH, DGA
3. Porcelain War (Picturehouse) – CEH, DGA, PGA
4. Sugarcane (National Geographic Documentary Films) – CCA, DGA, IDA
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’etat (Kino Lorber) – CEH, DGA, EFA, Gotham, IDA
Alternate: Will & Harper (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA
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