With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. Much like in 2020 when Minari was the critics’ favourite, we’re in another situation where the critics’ leader is not part of the Oscars race. RRR has picked up the lion’s share of wins with the critics this season, including the Critics’ Choice Awards. Alas, it was strangely not India’s submission, and so its awards journey lies with potential nominations elsewhere.
Given we must ignore what the critics had to say, we can instead turn our focus to the major precursor awards. All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, and Argentina, 1985 have all picked up nominations from BAFTA, the Golden Globes (where the latter was the surprise winner), and Critics’ Choice, so they feel like our three certainties for an Oscar nod. Close was longlisted by BAFTA and picked up a big win with the National Board of Review, so that seems likely to be our fourth nominee.
Much like most categories this year, that leaves the fifth spot open to all sorts of possibilities. The final 15 films on the Academy’s shortlist are all so damn strong, one could make an argument for any of them taking the final slot. My personal favourite would be The Quiet Girl. Its BAFTA nomination gave me a glimmer of hope, but that’s probably more of a “home crowd advantage” situation.
It’s hard to discount something like Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths and the strength of a director like Alejandro González Iñárritu. But its middling reviews and the fact it just hasn’t taken off this season (even the HFPA didn’t nominate it and they normally adore Iñárritu) makes it feel DOA. Pakistan’s Joyland would be an inspired choice, as would Morocco’s The Blue Caftan. But, for money, Poland’s EO feels like our final nominee. It was the winner with the Los Angeles and New York critics groups and scored a lot of love online all season long.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) BAFTA, CCA, GG
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea) BAFTA, CCA, GG
3. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) BAFTA, CCA, GG
4. Close (Belgium) BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
5. EO (Poland) BAFTA longlist
Alternate: Joyland (Pakistan)
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