Final Oscars Nominations Predictions – Best Original Screenplay

With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. In the race for Best Original Screenplay, Anora, A Real Pain, The Brutalist, and The Substance all have with nominations at all three key precursors; BAFTA, Critics Choice Awards, and the Golden Globes. The first two also scored nods with the Writers Guild of America where the other two were ineligible. It’s hard to see any of them missing at this point.

That leaves that final spot open to all sorts of possibilities. BAFTA went with Kneecap and that’s not happening with the Academy. CCA went with Challengers and that’s a strong possibility. But I think it boils down to a battle between Hard Truths and September 5. Five-time nominee Mike Leigh feels like the stronger choice. It’s hard to ignore the fact the man hasn’t been nominated in 15 years, but he hasn’t had an awards contender in that time. I’m sticking with Leigh but I’m not super confident.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Anora (Neon) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
Sean Baker
2. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
Jesse Eisenberg
3. The Brutalist (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
4. The Substance (MUBI) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, EFA
Coralie Fargeat
5. Hard Truths (Bleeker Street)
Mike Leigh

Alternate: September 5 – Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum (Paramount Pictures)