With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And now we arrive at the big one and it’s really coming down to that 10th spot. Eight films all have the key combination of nominations from PGA, the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, and AFI’s top 10. I wouldn’t read too much into The Substance missing with AFI, as it was long before that film’s campaign really hit its stride. Five films also have a BAFTA nod to solidify their chances, so, barring a huge snub, it’s really that final spot that’s in play.
PGA went with September 5 as their 10th pick. AFI went with Sing Sing and Nickel Boys as their alternates. Besides a very random Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture, September 5 hasn’t really fired anywhere else this season, but perhaps we’re all underestimating it and the pertinency of its subject matter. If it can score nominations in places like screenplay or film editing, it could slot in here too.
Sing Sing has experienced a topsy-turvy awards season. It seemed to go from a sure thing to an outsider with every passing week. It was odd to see it win both acting categories at the Gotham Awards when it wasn’t nominated for Best Feature. The fact it couldn’t land with either PGA or GG could prove very telling. Maybe it’s been hurt by the fact A24’s focus has clearly been on The Brutalist.
Nickel Boys has seen more success with a handful of Best Picture wins from the critics and nominations at CCA, the Globes, and both the Gotham and Independent Spirit Awards. Amazon MGM Studios hasn’t exactly run a great campaign, but the film has kept its name among the chatter. If RaMell Ross can score a Best Director nod, you couldn’t fathom his film missing here.
So which way to go? Much like many categories, it’s really a coin flip on what to put as your final prediction. Both films are phenomenal and have the kind of rave reviews that should have been enough to see them in the Best Picture line-up. I’ll stick with Sing Sing but it’s just an educated guess at this point, folks.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. The Brutalist (A24) – AFI, CCA, GG, PGA
2. Conclave (Focus Features) – AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
3. Anora (Neon) – AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, Gotham, PGA, Spirit
4. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – AFI, BAFTA, CCA, EFA, GG, PGA
5. Wicked (Universal Pictures) – AFI, CCA, GG, PGA
6. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) – AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, NBR, PGA
7. The Substance (MUBI) – CCA, EFA, GG, Spirit, PGA
8. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) – AFI, CCA, NBR, PGA
9. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) – AFI, GG, NBR, PGA
10. Sing Sing (A24) – AFI, CCA, Spirit
Alternate – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios) – AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit
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