With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. We’ve got three contenders in the race for Best Supporting Actor who haven’t missed a beat all season. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Yura Borisov (Anora) all have nominations from BAFTA, the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, and the SAG Awards, making them feel like locks for Oscar nods.
Can we just take a minute to appreciate Borisov’s incredible run? A totally unknown actor in a movie dominated by conversation about its leading lady has rightfully sailed through awards season alongside her. You love to see it. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) was oddly snubbed by SAG, but his trio of other nominations plus his success with the critics groups should be enough for him to feel secure with the Academy.
That leaves our final spot up for grabs. For months, it felt like Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) was a sure thing for this 10th acting nomination from the Academy. But the wheels have completely fallen off his campaign and it’s now looking entirely unlikely he’ll hear his name on Oscar nomination morning. Sure, the BAFTA snub was nothing new (he’s NEVER been nominated by the Brits), but missing out at SAG felt like the final nail in the coffin of his campaign. Could he still make it through? Sure, but there are stronger contenders in his way.
It feels like it’s coming down to a battle between Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) and Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing). For most of the season, it seemed like Maclin was a solid chance. And still absolutely is. His trio of nods from BAFTA, CCA, and the Gotham Awards (where he won) is nothing to sneeze at. However, Sing Sing’s failure to make the PGA ten was perhaps a sign that the film is not as strong as once thought.
And then there’s Strong, who unsurprisingly manages to steal focus away from Sebastian Stan’s lauded performance at every turn in The Apprentice. I think his trio of BAFTA, Golden Globes, and SAG makes him the stronger contender here, but it’s damn close. Flip a coin to pick your final nominee.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, GG, SAG
2. Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Yura Borislov – Anora (Neon) – BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, GG, SAG
4. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, GG
5. Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment) – BAFTA, GG, SAG
Alternate: Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, Gotham
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