With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And, with BAFTA nominations coming five days after the Academy’s announcement, we’re flying without that typical precursor stat. At least we have their longlists for some reference.
Nothing makes me feel more nervous than an Oscar category that seems far too easy to predict the final five nominees. Such is the case with Best Supporting Actor, which is now starting to feel totally locked down, meaning an upset nomination could be on the cards here. But who misses out from a line-up of five actors who haven’t missed a beat all season?
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) all have nominations from the Critics Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, and appear on the BAFTA longlist. All but Skarsgård also nabbed an Actor Award nomination. Given SAG often has issues with nominating non-English language films, it wasn’t a huge surprise. And he just won the Golden Globe, which put his campaign back on track. It’s been 10 years since the GG supporting actor winner failed to earn an Oscar nod (Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals), so Skarsgård is safe.
Shoutout to Elordi, whose nomination felt like a bit of a long shot just a few months ago. Now, he’s won the Critics Choice Award, which has an incredible history in this category where every winner since its inception in 1995 has gone on to an Oscar nomination. If he wins at SAG and Skarsgård wins at BAFTA, this is going to be a real nail-biter.
So that leaves us with the possibility of a snub for Penn or Mescal. Both appear in major Best Picture contenders expected to receive a nominations tally in the double digits. Both have all the key precursor season nominations. One is a veteran and two-time Oscar winner. One is a bright young talent coming off his first nomination 3 years ago. Both deserve to be acknowledged.
Penn could suffer from the fact that he’s been here five times before and won twice. Mescal could suffer from the fact many think he should have been campaigned in the lead category. Some might even vote for him in Best Actor instead. If Sinners really does overperform and comes for that total nominations record, I’d say Miles Caton is the one who gets in. His SAG nomination showed he has the support of the acting branch, so it won’t be a huge surprise.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (NEON) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
2. Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (Netflix) – Gotham – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
Alternate: Miles Caton – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – SAG
