Final Oscars Predictions - Best Actor

After almost completing a clean sweep of the major televised awards, the late Chadwick Boseman is poised to be the first posthumous acting Oscar winner since Heath Ledger in 2008 for The Dark Knight. With wins at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and the Critics Choice Awards, Boseman feels almost unstoppable at this point. Once Netflix confirmed his placement in the lead category and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom debuted to rave reviews in November, Boseman instantly became the frontrunner and hasn’t budged from that position for the last few months. While his tragic death plays a minor part in the narrative behind his awards season success, Boseman’s performance is breathtaking and he’d likely still be leading this race if he were with us.

If there is a spoiler waiting in the wings, it’s Anthony Hopkins, whose stunning performance in The Father has been garnering huge Oscar buzz since debuting at Sundance in early 2020. Hopkins’ victory at the BAFTAs halted Boseman’s bid to sweep all four major awards and could suggest this race is closer than it first appeared. Whether Hopkins’ win was merely a case of home crowd advantage or evidence The Father has picked up enough steam in the latter stages of the season to see the actor take home his second Academy Award remains to be seen.

And then there’s Riz Ahmed, who hasn’t missed a beat all season with Best Actor nominations for Sound of Metal at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, the SAG Awards, and the BAFTAs. Plus he scored over 20 awards from the critics groups and wins at the Gotham Awards and the Film Independent Spirit Awards. After quietly debuting at the Toronto International Film Festival way back in 2019, Sound of Metal has been the Cinderella story of this awards season with six nominations including Best Picture. A win for Ahmed would be the kind of huge upset akin to Adrian Brody in 2002 for The Pianist and could very well happen if Boseman and Hopkins split the votes.

But this is the first and last chance to award Boseman with an Oscar, and I can’t see the Academy passing up that opportunity. Hopkins is certainly a strong threat, but the tremendous love for both Boseman’s performance and the actor himself should be more than enough to snatch a deserving victory for the late star.