Final Oscars Predictions – Best Actor

For a while there, it was looking like Best Actor was all sewn up for Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). After wins at the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, and the Critics Choice Awards, Brody seemed set to join Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña with a clean sweep of the televised awards. And then the SAG Awards happened and threw a curveball in this seemingly boring race.

When Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) became the youngest-ever winner of the SAG Award for lead actor, it signalled that Brody’s run wasn’t entirely flawless. But let’s remember A Complete Unknown was much better received by SAG voters than The Brutalist. It had four nominations including best ensemble. Brody was the sole nominee for his film. Was it really that shocking to see Chalamet snatch this prize?

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And consider this; since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1994, no actor has gone on to win the Best Actor Oscar with just a SAG victory. That’s a big piece of history Chalamet has to overcome if he hopes to dethrone Brody as the youngest-ever Best Actor Oscar winner. The one thing in Chalamet’s corner is there’s a lot of love out there for both him and the film. And the undeniable fact the overall Oscar buzz around The Brutalist has definitely cooled.

But I don’t think it’s waned enough to affect Brody’s campaign. The SAG loss was a dent in his run, but the fact he managed to beat someone like Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) on home soil at the BAFTAs shows how strong his Oscar chances are, especially given how well Conclave performed that night. Brody has a slight “career comeback” narrative behind him as well and that’s always tough to defeat. It’ll be closer than we initially thought, but Brody should hear his name called for the second time in his career.

BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (A24) – BAFTA, Gotham, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (Focus Features) – BAFTA, EFA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (A24) – BAFTA, Gotham, CCA, GG, Spirit, SAG
5. Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment) – BAFTA, GG, Spirit