Well, well, well. The race for Best Actor may have begun looking like another season where one actor steamrolls his way to victory. But the final few weeks have truly turned this category on its head. What was looking like this would finally be the year of Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) has become anything but.
Chalamet started a little shaky. His film opened to rave reviews, but then Chalamet went on a bizarre press tour where he appeared to stay “in character” the entire time. It was rubbing people the wrong way, and, clearly, the message got through that acting like a self-important douchebag wouldn’t work well during the awards circuit.
Pretty quickly, the old Chalamet was back. He was polite and charming at Q&As and events. He was dressing well and acting more mature. The Oscar campaign was indeed on. After Chalamet won at both the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, the expected sweep was on the horizon. And then everything fell apart.
Despite 11 BAFTA nominations for Marty Supreme and pretty much everyone predicting a Chalamet win for Best Actor, he shockingly lost to hometown hero Robert Aramayo (I Swear). Losing to someone who isn’t in contention for the Oscar was the best unsuccessful outcome Chalamet could hope for, especially given one could argue Aramayo simply had the home crowd advantage. People dismissed it as just a blip in Chalamet’s campaign. It would surely get back on track at the Actor Awards. Nope.
Things went from bad to worse for Chalamet when Viola Davis belted out the name of Michael B Jordan (Sinners) late in the evening. The room genuinely erupted. The tide had well and truly turned. Not only was Sinners starting to peak again at just the right moment, but Jordan was also now emerging as the new frontrunner for Best Actor.
However, Jordan’s path to an Oscar victory isn’t without its hurdles to clear. In the 31-year history of the SAG/Actor Awards, there has not been a single eventual Best Actor Oscar winner with just a SAG trophy as their only victory during the precursor season. Of course, rules are made to be broken. But it’s a stat that does provide some pause here.
So it comes down to this: either Chalamet overcomes the disappointment of losing the final two important awards as Oscar voting got underway, or Jordan rides the wave of love for Sinners all the way to the stage at the Dolby Theatre. This is one of those predictions where stats aren’t entirely helpful, and you’re going to have to go with your gut.
I’ve been back and forth on this many times since the Actor Awards. Chalamet gives an incredible performance in Marty Supreme. The film has NINE nominations. The Academy clearly loved it. This is Chalamet’s third Oscar nod. For his previous two nominations, you’d have to say he was the runner-up. Even at just 30, he somehow feels somewhat “overdue.” This was always meant to be his year. And yet, I cannot deny the “buzz” has died, and it now lies with Jordan instead.
It should just be about the performances. And I hate boiling it down to this. But I think Jordan is just much more “likable” than Chalamet. And the passion to see Jordan win is stronger. It reminds me of Russell Crowe in 2001 for A Beautiful Mind. Crowe won the Globe, BAFTA, CCA, and SAG. Crowe was set to be the first person to win back-to-back acting Oscars since Tom Hanks in the 90s.
And then Crowe had a backstage altercation with one of the BAFTA producers after part of his speech was edited. The bad press was a disaster as final Oscar voting commenced. And Denzel Washington was waiting in the wings to snatch the Oscar. Now, obviously, Chalamet hasn’t acted as poorly as Crowe during awards season. But the passion to award him has died similarly, and Jordan has reaped the benefits.
People want to see Jordan win. Can you really say that for Chalamet? It’s hard to explain. Chalamet has done nothing wrong, per se. But the overwhelmingly positive response to Jordan’s SAG victory has made me believe he can overcome that SAG stat and take the Oscar.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (NEON) – CCA, GG
4. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
Will win: Michael B. Jordan
Should win: Timothée Chalamet
Possible upset: Wagner Moura
