And now we arrive at possibly the toughest category to predict of the whole night, which is entirely fitting, given the race for Best Actress has been genuinely unpredictable for the last five years. You could make a strong case for why four of the five nominees deserve to take this home. One capped off a comeback in a genre rarely honoured by the Academy. One announced the arrival of a bright new star. One made history with a nomination that seemed impossible just a few months ago. And one delivered one of the most exhilarating movie musical performances in years.
It really is something to see Demi Moore nominated here for a film like The Substance. Horror movies and the Academy generally don’t mix. Just ask Toni Collette, Florence Pugh, and Lupita Nyong’o. But there is something extra special about what Moore delivers that became too grand to ignore. And her somewhat surprise Golden Globe win in January immediately catapulted her to the frontrunner status.
After Anora scored the Palme d’Or at Cannes in May, Mikey Madison immediately became a strong contender for Best Actress. Madison had stolen focus with supporting roles in films like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Scream, but her first leading role gave her the chance she needed to stamp her claim as a star on the rise. While her loss at the Globes was a dent in her campaign, she snatched a big win at the BAFTAs that puts her right back in contention.
For months prior to awards season starting, there was a lot of online buzz around Fernanda Torres’ performance in I’m Still Here. But the Best Actress category was so stacked that many thought her chances of an Oscar nom were rather slim. But when Torres managed to beat four (!) previous Oscar winners for the Golden Globe, she became impossible to ignore.
Given Moore, Madison, Cynthia Erivo, and Karla Sofía Gascón were all in the comedy/musical category at the Globes and Torres missed nominations at the BAFTAs and the SAG Awards, she has never faced off directly against her fellow Oscar nominees. This means we have no idea how she’ll fare when pitted against them at the Oscars. If Moore and Madison split the votes, she could be the shock spoiler waiting in the wings à la Adrien Brody (The Pianist) in 2002.
As for Erivo, well, sadly, she hasn’t nabbed a major win all season long and her second Best Actress Oscar nomination is going to have to be her only prize this year. It probably didn’t help that Wicked has been split into two parts, so voters always knew they’ve got another chance to honour her next season and complete her EGOT. If Wicked: For Good is as big a critical and commercial success as its predecessor, she could be winning Best Actress next year in a cakewalk.
After Madison’s BAFTA win, all eyes turned to SAG where Moore came out on top. Was that the final straw she needed in her cap to take home the Oscar? Last year, the SAG win for Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) didn’t translate to a victory with the Academy. But Moore has that comeback narrative that’s driven her success all season long. She’s delivered phenomenal acceptance speeches at the Globes and SAGs. And there’s so much love flying around for her.
In saying that, Anora has become the undeniable frontrunner for Best Picture and that can only help Madison’s chances. She carries the entire film on her young shoulders and pulls it off with aplomb. Madison was everywhere during the final stages of Oscar voting and Neon has pulled out every stop to try and get her the victory many believe she deserves. In a year of such uncertainty, it could still happen.
But my gut says this has been Moore’s to lose since the Globes. Sure, her loss at the BAFTAs wasn’t great for her campaign, but that SAG victory shows she’s got the actors on her side. We’re in an age where the Academy is favouring awarding Best Actress to seasoned performers as opposed to young ingenues and that works incredibly well for someone who has been around as long as Moore. Whatever happens, we’re heading for a richly deserving winner.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) – BAFTA, Gotham, Spirit, GG, CCA, SAG
2. Mikey Madison – Anora (Neon) – BAFTA, Gotham, Spirit, GG, CCA, SAG
3. Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG
4. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked (Universal Pictures) – GG, CCA, SAG
5. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – BAFTA, EFA, GG, CCA, SAG
Will win: Demi Moore
Should win: Fernanda Torres
Possible shocker: Fernanda Torres
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