Final Oscars Predictions - Best Cinematography

For practically the entirety of awards season, Joshua James Richards has been the frontrunner to win Best Cinematography for his majestic work on Nomadland. But this race could be closer than it first appeared, especially after one last-minute curveball from a precursor award that broke Richards’ seemingly unstoppable sweep. With over 30 wins from the critics groups and victories at the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs, Richards’ streak came to a shock end at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards where Erik Messerschmidt triumphed for Mank.

Now, this could mean a lot or it could mean very little. The ASC do have a habit of going their own way and not matching the eventual Oscar winner. In 2018, they went with Cold War over Oscar champ Roma. In 2016, they chose Lion over Oscar winner La La Land. And there’s even been several years where neither ASC nor BAFTA matched the Academy’s choice, so it’s hardly time for Richards to start panicking, especially given his film’s frontrunner status for Best Picture.

Even those who aren’t huge fans of Nomadland have been singing Richards’ praises. Few could deny the film is a visual delight and Richards has maintained buzz all season long. It’s hardly surprising Messerschmidt’s fellow cinematographers anointed him their choice this year. His work is far more technically impressive than that of Richards and the kind of cinematography fellow artists eat up. Richards is more likely to receive support from the broader Academy voting body, especially given his film is a major contender elsewhere and Messerschmidt’s is not. Ultimately, Richards’ ASC loss feels more like a minor blip on his road to taking home the Oscar.