In 2020, Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) became only the second woman in history to win the Academy Award for Best Director. In 2021, Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) is poised to become the third. This will also mean we have two consecutive female winners for the very first time. Even as the Best Picture chances of The Power of the Dog have somewhat faded in the final stages of the season, Campion has remained out front of the Best Director race.
With more than 40 prizes from the critics groups and wins from DGA, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes, Campion has dominated this season in exactly the same fashion as Zhao last year. While her film is no longer the favourite to win Best Picture, there’s nothing to suggest Campion isn’t deservedly collecting Best Director.
Is there a case to make for a win for any of the other four nominees? If Belfast had surged in the Best Picture race, it may have dragged Kenneth Branagh along for the ride. But his best chance lies with a win for Best Original Screenplay, as is the case for Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza). While Best International Feature Film will technically be awarded to Japan, a win there is essentially a reward for Ryûsuku Hamaguchi’s writing and directing.
If something bizarre happens like Campion and Branagh splitting the votes, Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) could snatch a shocking upset victory. But I’m really just clutching at straws to make this race more exciting than it has been all season long. Campion has been the undisputed frontrunner for months and she’s one of the biggest locks of the night.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features)
3. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
4. Ryûsuku Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Janus Films)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Will win: Jane Campion
Should win: Jane Campion
Possible shocker: Steven Spielberg
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