Final Oscars Predictions – Best Director

Unlike last year when Christopher Nolan won everything in sight before expectedly taking home the Oscar for Best Director, this season has been all over the damn place. But that’s been the case for many categories, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise there’s no undeniable frontrunner here. It’s still wild to me Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) isn’t here. Nor Edward Berger (Conclave). But, hey, we thankfully got a female director into the line-up and one that directed a horror movie, no less. Take a bow, Coralie.

For all the chaos, it really boils down to two directors; Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). Neither has landed a killer combo of precursor wins that make them the solid prediction to take this prize home. Baker has DGA and the Indie Spirit Award. Corbet has the BAFTA and Golden Globe. Both have seen their films win big prizes for Best Picture. But only one film really has the “buzz.”

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Corbet’s The Brutalist had it early on, especially after a strong showing at the Globes. But after its poor response from the SAG Awards where Adrien Brody was its sole nominee and no luck with wins at PGA, DGA, or Best Film at the BAFTAs, it’s clear the tide has turned. In the final stages of voting, the headlines all screamed Anora and that’s something that helps Baker tremendously here, particularly after that DGA win.

In the preferential era, the DGA winner has matched the Academy 13 out of 15 times. The two DGA-winners-turned-Oscar-losers were Sam Mendes for 1917, who lost to the juggernauts that were Bong Joon-ho and Parasite, and Ben Affleck, who infamously wasn’t Oscar-nominated for Argo. The Affleck stat naturally means nothing since he technically didn’t “lose” the Oscar. And Mendes’ loss was totally understandable given Parasite would take Best Picture. Rules are always made to be broken and Baker could join Mendes and Affleck. However, is Corbet really the one to break such a stat when his film clearly isn’t winning Best Picture?

On the flip side of that, the last person to win the Best Director Oscar with only a DGA win was Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Birdman in 2014, so that’s a stat that works again Baker. But, much like Anora, Birdman didn’t peak until late in the race, so it’s not surprising Iñárritu didn’t sweep through the season. You can say the same for Baker. Anora seemed dead on arrival a few weeks ago. But with PGA, DGA, WGA, and Critics Choice Awards victories, it came surging back. That surge is going to propel Baker to a win here.

BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Sean Baker – Anora (Neon) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG, Gotham, Spirit
2. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG, Spirit
3. Coralie Fargeat – The Substance (MUBI) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
4. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, EFA, GG
5. James Mangold – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) – DGA