Well, well, well. For a category that was seemingly done and dusted the second Emilia Pérez led the entire Oscars field with 13 nominations, we’re now in a situation where Best International Feature is one of the most hotly contested categories of the year. On paper, it doesn’t make sense that there’s any doubt in this race. Emilia Pérez has that huge nomination tally. It won the BAFTA, the Golden Globe, and the Critics Choice Award as well as the European Film Award. It should be the unassailable frontrunner.
And, for much of the season, it was. Seemingly nothing could stop it. Nothing except its leading lady and her sketchy Twitter history. In January, numerous old tweets came back to bite Karla Sofía Gascón when it was revealed her past online behaviour included derogatory remarks targeting everyone from Muslims, George Floyd, Christians, her current co-star Selena Gomez, and even the Oscars themselves. Despite numerous (and often poorly worded) apologies from Gascón, the backlash was brutal. And it’s undeniable the controversy has damaged the film’s Oscar campaign.
For a film that was already quite heavily publicly maligned for its mishandling of both transgender and Mexican culture, it’s an additional storm Emilia Pérez did not need. But is bad press really enough to derail an Oscar win that seemed all but predestined just two months ago? It didn’t hurt its ability to win the BAFTA where final voting took place right as the Gascón story broke, so it’s hard to say.
It also hasn’t helped that the only contender to potentially defeat Emilia Pérez in this category is a film that has undeniable passion surrounding it. It’s that love that helped propel I’m Still Here to additional nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress for Fernanda Torres that somehow mean more to this race than the 13 nods of Emilia Pérez. We always knew Emilia Pérez was going to receive a huge haul of nominations. But those additional two nominations for I’m Still Here were far from certainties a few months ago. And they could be very telling.
The fact Torres slipped into the Best Actress top five over huge names like Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, and Pamela Anderson was a monumental achievement. Likewise, the fact her film landed in the Best Picture ten in place of bigger contenders like A Real Pain and Sing Sing was groundshaking. The film broke into the race quite late and it peaked at just the right time, especially after Torres’ somewhat unexpected Golden Globe win. That kind of love could be enough to propel it to the front in this category.
Or it could just be a whole lot of online noise from a very loud and very passionate fanbase who really love I’m Still Here, really hate Emilia Pérez or both. And that kind of virtual chatter could mean absolutely nothing to what Academy voters will ultimately do. Maybe they won’t care about the Gascón PR disaster. Maybe some members won’t even be aware of it. Maybe they won’t even watch the film and just be swayed by the fact it has 13 nominations so it must be worthy of a win in this category.
It’s one of many coin flip categories this year and you’re just going to have to go with your gut. I keep going back and forth between the two and could change my final pick on the day of the awards. It would be quite something to see a non-English language film nab 13 nominations including Best Picture and Best Director and fail to win Best International Feature. But it’s difficult to deny the tide has shifted since nominations morning and the little-Brazilian-film-that-could seems set to topple a film that’s had a target on its back for weeks now.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. I’m Still Here (Brazil) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
2. Emilia Pérez (France) – BAFTA, CCA, EFA, GG
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany) – BIFA, CCA, EFA, GG
4. Flow (Latvia) – CCA, EFA, SPIRIT
5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark) – GG
Will win: I’m Still Here
Should win: I’m Still Here
Possible shocker: Flow
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