Final Oscars Predictions – Best Original Screenplay

The battle for Best Original Screenplay has certainly been a strange journey, especially after the Academy ruled Barbie was ineligible to run as an original screenplay (because, you know, it’s based on…a toy?) and had to compete in the adapted screenplay category. While Barbie was a solid early contender here, it felt like this would be a two-horse race between The Holdovers and Past Lives.

The former became a major contender overall while the latter overcame a summer release date to remain in the hunt come awards season and nab a nomination here and in Best Picture. Either would make a sublime choice as our eventual winner, but then the Golden Globes happened and the tide shifted dramatically towards Anatomy of a Fall.

After its unexpected screenplay win at the Globes and knowing it couldn’t be nominated for/win Best International Feature after France submitted The Taste of Things, Justine Triet and Arthur Harari soon became the choice de jour to win for screenwriting instead. When Anatomy overperformed and scored additional Oscar nominations for Best Picture, Director, Actress, and Film Editing, the race was all but over. Triet and Harari’s win at the BAFTAs only further solidified this face.

We know the Academy members clearly love Anatomy of a Fall and they will want to give it something. Since they’re unable to match many other awards ceremonies and award it Best International Feature, Best Original Screenplay is really their only option. Triet is not winning Best Director. Barring a huge upset, Sandra Hüller is not taking out Best Actress. And Oppenheimer has a stranglehold on Best Film Editing. While it may have initially seemed Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach would be this year’s Oscar-winning couple, it’s going to be Triet and Harari instead.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Anatomy of a Fall – Justin Triet, Arthur Harari (NEON) – BAFTA, GG
2. The Holdovers – David Hemingson (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, WGA
3. Past Lives – Celine Song (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
4. Maestro – Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
5. May December – Samy Burch (Netflix) – CCA, WGA

Will win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should win: Past Lives
Possible shocker: May December