What once seemed like a relatively easy category to predict has become one of the toughest battles of Oscar night. For much of the season, it was presumed Best Original Screenplay was a fairly secure win for Sean Baker (Anora). And it very much still could be. But the fact Baker enters the night with just a WGA win up his sleeve is far from the strongest precursor success story.
After Baker lost the BAFTA to Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), the Critics Choice Award to Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), and the Golden Globe to Peter Straughan (Conclave, up for Adapted), his Oscar chances for screenwriting look terribly shakey. It doesn’t help he’s up for three other awards where Academy members may prefer to give him some love, especially Best Director where he’s the presumed frontrunner.
The one stat in Baker’s favour is the fact Best Original Screenplay hasn’t gone to a film not up for Best Picture since 2004’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. That being said, rules are made to be broken and there is a lot of love out there for Eisenberg, even if A Real Pain couldn’t crack into the Best Picture race. As an actor, he’s worked with many Academy members over the last 20 years. He came achingly close to winning Best Actor in 2010 for A Social Network; something some voters will definitely remember and still be perturbed by. And he’s been undeniably charming and funny during his film’s awards campaign.
I have legitimately lost sleep over trying to predict this category. Something in my gut says we’re in for an upset for A Real Pain. And I may just change my absolute final prediction before the ceremony. But, for now, at least, I’m staying the course for Anora. If it happens, you can presume the race for Best Picture is over. If A Real Pain takes it, game on.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Anora (Neon) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
Sean Baker
2. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA
Jesse Eisenberg
3. The Substance (MUBI) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, EFA
Coralie Fargeat
4. The Brutalist (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
5. September 5 (Paramount Pictures) – CCA
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum
Will win: Anora
Should win: Anora
Possible shocker: The Substance
Discover more from Filmotomy
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
