Final Oscars Predictions – Best Picture

And now we arrive at the big one. For anyone who complained last year was too boring with Oppenheimer sweeping every major prize, you’ve been delivered the complete opposite this year. We enter Oscar night without an undeniable frontrunner for Best Picture and that’s always both terribly tense and deliciously exhilarating.

For all the early buzz around The Brutalist, its campaign hit a dead end when it couldn’t win at PGA, DGA, or the BAFTAs. This is really boiling down to BAFTA and SAG victor Conclave and PGA/DGA/WGA/Critics Choice winner Anora. There could be signs along the way to signal how Best Picture will wind up. If Anora loses Best Original Screenplay, it could open the door for a Conclave win. If Anora wins Best Film Editing, it could be all over. But this is the season for chaos, so early prizes could ultimately mean absolutely nothing for the final category.

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There’s only one film that won PGA, DGA, and WGA and still lost Best Picture; Brokeback Mountain. That’s a stat that works in the favour of Anora. But hold your horses. The film (Crash) that defeated Brokeback Mountain won the SAG Ensemble award before its Oscar win. Conclave also won the SAG prize as well as the BAFTA for Best Film; something Crash did not. But one can suppose you can dismiss that as one of those years where British voters leaned towards a British film like when Atonement and The Queen won.

And what to make of the fact Edward Berger is missing from the Best Director nominees? Once upon a time, that was the death knell for a Best Picture campaign. Nowadays, not so much (see CODA, Green Book, Argo). But those three films dominated the latter part of the season and became undisputed frontrunners. And all three took PGA; something Conclave did not.

It’s going to be close and it could genuinely go to either Anora or Conclave. In the past, I would have pointed out how the Academy is dominated by older voters and why they’d gravitate towards something more “traditional” like Conclave. But we’re not in that era anymore. And all those late wins for Anora came just as Oscars voting was underway. It gave it the buzz it needed to etch this one out. I won’t be surprised to hear Conclave announced as the victory, but I’m sticking with our girl Ani.

BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Anora (Neon) – AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, Gotham, PGA, Spirit
2. Conclave (Focus Features) – AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
3. The Brutalist (A24) – AFI, CCA, GG, PGA
4. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) – AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, NBR, PGA
5. Wicked (Universal Pictures) – AFI, CCA, GG, PGA
6. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – AFI, BAFTA, CCA, EFA, GG, PGA
7. The Substance (MUBI) – CCA, EFA, GG, PGA, Spirit
8. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) – AFI, CCA, NBR, PGA
9. I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics)
10. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios) – AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit