It’s not an exaggeration to say Best Supporting Actress is perhaps the most difficult category of this year’s Academy Awards. As we enter the Oscar ceremony, there is a legitimate chance for three of the five nominees to be our victor. Sorry to Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value). In saying that, this race has been so chaotic, maybe we are in for a monumental upset, and one of them snatches it.
Before the season began, many were hoping and praying for an Oscar nomination for Amy Madigan (Weapons). But we knew the Academy’s chequered history with horror (although Demi Moore and The Substance certainly broke down some doors last year), so it was still seen as a long shot.
Madigan started sweeping wins from the critics groups, but we’d seen that before and it sometimes means absolutely nothing. As expected, she won at the Critics Choice Awards, so things were looking good, especially when she nabbed key nominations like the Golden Globes and the Actor Awards.
But, of course, this category was about to throw a few curveballs our way. First, it was Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) winning at the Globes. Then it was Madigan being shockingly snubbed at the BAFTAs. As such, a new strong contender emerged in Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), who dusted off being snubbed by the Globes to score nods from BAFTA and SAG, which led to her slightly unexpected victory on home soil at the former in late February.
All eyes turned to the Actor Awards. A win for Mosaku would match the same BAFTA/SAG trajectory as Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) in Best Supporting Actor and make her feel rather unstoppable. A win for Taylor would put her back on top. But it was Madigan who scored with her fellow actors, leaving her as the only nominee with more than one major precursor prize this season.
So where does that leave us? Lost. That’s where. You could make a great case for any of these three. Taylor and Mosaku star in the two films left duelling it out for Best Picture. They both have co-stars who seem likely to win an acting category. Taylor’s Globe win was a great start to the season, but Mosaku’s BAFTA victory is a huge notch to have in her belt, so I think that gives her the edge over Taylor.
Madigan naturally suffers from the fact that she’s the sole nominee for Weapons, compared to her two rivals, whose films are nominated across the board. In the history of Best Supporting Actress, eight winners have stood as the sole nomination for their films. The last time it happened was Penélope Cruz in 2008 for Vicky Christina Barcelona.
I’ve been riding for Madigan all season long, so I’m sticking with her until the end. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Something about the huge reaction to her SAG win gives me hope that it’s actually happening. She’s a veteran. She created an iconic villain that will live for an eternity. She stole a film with barely 15 minutes of screen time. People want to see her win. Regardless, any of these three would be worthy winners, so whichever way the Academy goes, we all win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Amy Madigan – Weapons (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG, SAG
2. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, SAG
3. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value (NEON) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
5. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value (NEON) – CCA, GG
Will win: Amy Madigan
Should win: Amy Madigan
Possible upset: Teyana Taylor
