After the shock of the nuttiest slew of Golden Globe nominations in years (Music for Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy, HFPA? Really?!), it’s time to see what the Screen Actors Guild has to say. Here’s hoping for better news, especially for something like Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods, which was completely ignored by the HFPA. Surely the actors won’t follow suit, right?
Once upon a time, a nomination at SAG for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture was a necessary box for a film to tick on its way to winning Best Picture. But after The Shape of Water in 2017 and Green Book in 2018 both missed this nomination, yet still won Best Picure, that once-concrete rule has now been shattered. Then again, Parasite took this prize last year, signalling the film was a genuine Best Picture contender.
This particular category occasionally throws in a left-field nomination few saw coming (Captain Fantastic in 2016, Bobby in 2006). As such, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see a big ensemble piece like The Prom or The Boys in the Band (Netflix were heavily pushing its all-gay male ensemble in their campaign advertising) show up here.
As for the acting categories, the Golden Globe-ignored Paul Raci and Youn Yuh-jung could get their Oscar campaigns back on track with a SAG nomination. Raci faces a tough challenge to be included amongst he’s better-known competitors, while Youn will likely nab a nomination if SAG truly loved Minari.
When all is said and done, a nomination from the Screen Actors Guild is one of the most important of the season. Actors make up the largest branch of the Academy, so if you can win them over here, you’re likely to garner their support again when Oscar ballots go out. Still, it’s no guarantee. Just ask Jennifer Lopez.
So, without further ado, here are my predictions for the Screen Actors Guild Award nominations.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Minari
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Alternates: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, The Prom
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
Alternates: Ben Affleck – The Way Back, Tom Hanks – News of the World, Steven Yeun – Minari
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie
Alternates: Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Meryl Streep – The Prom
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr – One Night in Miami
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
Alternates: Brian Dennehy – Driveways, Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman – The Father
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Alternates: Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Youn Yuh-jung – Minari, Helena Zengel – News of the World
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The Old Guard
Tenet
Wonder Woman 1984
Alternates: Birds of Prey, The Outpost, Project Power
The nominations for the 27th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards will be unveiled at 8am PT/11am ET/4pm GMT on February 4. The announcement will be streamed live on the SAG Awards’ Instagram page, with Lily Collins and Daveed Diggs taking hosting duties.
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