As the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals get underway, awards season has now officially begun for another year. The first wave of awards contenders will be unveiled for those lucky enough to be in attendance, meaning it’s time to launch Filmotomy’s coverage of the 2025/26 season. Welcome back, folks. Let’s look at what’s been seen, what’s to come, and my first Oscars predictions of the season.
As is tradition, we’ll start with the studio that took home Best Picture last year. NEON’s biggest contender this year appears to be Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. After Trier stormed to a Best Original Screenplay nomination for The Worst Person in the World in 2021, the Norwegian filmmaker is back with a film that could (and should) go much further with the Academy.
For the sixth (!) year in a row, NEON will distribute Cannes’ Palme d’Or winner. Can they take Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident as far as films like Anora and Parasite? Time will tell, but it’s undoubtedly a major contender for Best International Feature, as is Sentimental Value. Also in the mix will be Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent, which scored Wagner Moura a Best Actor win at Cannes.
The one NEON film that has seemingly already crashed and burned is The Life of Chuck. After purchasing the film at TIFF last year, where it won the coveted People’s Choice Award, NEON sat on its release for almost a year. It flopped at the box office back in June and couldn’t replicate the same critical reaction it received from the Toronto crowd. Thus, its awards chances have all but evaporated, and the 12-year streak of every People’s Choice winner going on to a Best Picture nomination looks to be broken finally.
After receiving 10 Oscar nods and two wins for its first chapter, Universal will be hoping lightning strikes twice with Wicked: For Good. Box office success is all but assured for this IP that has become a genuine global phenomenon. Can it repeat the same response from the Academy? Only six actors have ever received Oscar nominations for playing the same character in different films, and none ever achieved such a feat in successive years. Will Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande join this group? And can Erivo go further and become a member of the EGOT club?
We know that early release dates are no longer a curse for awards contenders (Everything Everywhere All at Once shattered that misconception), so Warner Bros. will be looking to reignite the buzz surrounding April’s critical and commercial smash Sinners. It has the potential to be the most nominated film of the night and could steamroll through awards season unopposed à la Oppenheimer. But it’s still very early days.
WB also have Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another up their sleeve. Anderson has six films in a row that received at least one Oscar nod, so we know the Academy loves his work. But the fact the film is shunning festival season and going straight for a wide release (including IMAX) in late September doesn’t exactly scream “awards contender.” Still, it’s likely for a lock for a screenplay nod at least.
Searchlight Pictures has two contenders dropping during the festival run that are extremely strong on paper. Hikari’s Rental Family has all the hallmarks to be this season’s feel-good crowd pleaser and seems like an obvious potential winner of TIFF’s People’s Choice. And, with it, Brendan Fraser could be back in contention for Best Actor after his win in 2022.
And then there’s 12-time Oscar bridesmaid Bradley Cooper and his latest Is This Thing On?. Cooper’s previous two directorial efforts (A Star is Born and Maestro) scored 15 Oscar nominations collectively, so it’s anyone’s guess if he can make it repeat that reaction for a third time. The film will close the New York Film Festival in October, so we’ll have to wait a little longer to see what Cooper delivers this time and if he can finally nab that elusive Oscar.
Music biopics these days are either showered in Oscar nominations (A Complete Unknown, Elvis) or basically shunned (Rocketman, Respect). 20th Century Studios will be hoping Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere can match the awards season success of last year’s Bob Dylan biopic. The Springsteen biopic has a very similar vibe, and Jeremy Allen White is an awards darling on the TV side of things, so it’s entirely plausible.
Their other contender will be James Cameron’s threequel Avatar: Fire and Ash, which seems like a sure thing to take another couple of billion dollars at the global box office. That kind of commercial success saw the second film snatch a Best Picture nomination. Will it happen a third time? Regardless, the race for Best Visual Effects is probably already over before it’s even begun.
Indie darling A24 has two major contenders on their hands, and they happen to come from the Safdie brothers working separately for the first time. Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme is dodging awards season and focusing instead on a wide Christmas release, which is an interesting choice. Timothée Chalamet likely came in 2nd for Best Actor last season for A Complete Unknown, as he did in 2017 for Call Me by Your Name. This could be the one to finally get him across the line.
Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine will premiere at Venice and screen at TIFF, so it’s following a more traditional awards season route. There’s been buzz surrounding Dwayne Johnson’s performance for months and how it could be the film to prove he’s a serious actor, but time will tell. It could be a vehicle for Emily Blunt to snare her second Oscar nod, too.
Focus Features has a couple of potential players from two previous Oscar darlings. After her dalliance with the MCU, Chloé Zhao returns to more familiar fare with Hamnet, a fictional story centred on William Shakespeare and his wife, Agnes, played by Academy Award nominees Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley. And then there’s Yorgos Lanthimos with his third film in three years, Bugonia. Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons reunite with the Greek filmmaker after last year’s divisive Kinds of Kindness, so it’ll be interesting to see if this can return Lanthimos to the Academy’s good graces.
And then there’s the streaming services, where it’s Netflix with an embarrassment of riches on its hands, making it hard to know what they’ll ultimately give their focus to. If we went into detail about each one, we’d be here for several more paragraphs. On their roster, Netflix has Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, Edward Berger’s Ballad of the Small Player, Rian Johnson’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague, Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite, and Clint Bentley’s Train Dreams.
As for the others, Apple TV+ has the new Paul Greengrass true story The Lost Bus, which will premiere at TIFF. And expect F1: The Movie to be a strong player in the tech categories. Amazon MGM Studios is the home of Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt, which has plenty of buzz with it’s A-list cast (Julia Robert, Andrew Garfield, Ayo Edebri) and risqué subject matter.
That wraps up a wider view of the entire race as it stands right now, but others may emerge from under the radar as the festivals get underway. There are still months ahead of digging more deeply into each category, plus the plethora of incoming precursor awards that generally begin to shape the way the race is playing out. Below are my first predictions for the season in 21 categories and my early predicted winners in bold. Let the games begin!
BEST PICTURE
Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
Frankenstein (Netflix)
Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
Hamnet (Focus Features)
Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Marty Supreme (A24)
Rental Family (20th Century Studios)
Sentimental Value (NEON)
Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST DIRECTOR
Ryan Coogler – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein (Netflix)
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (A24)
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (NEON)
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (Focus Features)
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (Focus Features)
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (NEON)
Julia Roberts – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM)
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (A24)
Brendan Fraser – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (Warner Bros)
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (NEON)
Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value (NEON)
Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
Gwyneth Paltrow – Marty Supreme (A24)
Amy Madigan – Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine (A24)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Takehiro Hira – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features)
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (NEON)
Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Jay Kelly – Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer (Netflix)
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie (A24)
Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt (NEON)
Sinners – Ryan Coogler (Warner Bros.)
Sorry, Baby – Eva Victor (A24)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro (Netflix)
One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
Hamnet – Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao (Focus Features)
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere – Scott Cooper (20th Century Studios)
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery – Rian Johnson (Netflix)
BEST CASTING
Frankenstein – Robin D. Cook (Netflix)
Jay Kelly – Douglas Aibel & Nina Gold (Netflix)
Sinners – Francine Maisler (Warner Bros.)
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery – Bret Howe & Mary Vernieu (Netflix)
Wicked: For Good – Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Universal Pictures)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Russell Carpenter (20th Century Studios)
Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen (Netflix)
Hamnet – Lukasz Zal (Focus Features)
Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji (A24)
Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Warner Bros.)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frankenstein – Kate Hawley (Netflix)
Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska (Focus Features)
Kiss of the Spider Woman – Colleen Atwood (Lionsgate)
Sinners – Ruth E. Carter (Warner Bros.)
Wicked: For Good – Paul Tazewell (Universal Pictures)
BEST FILM EDITING
Jay Kelly – Valerio Bonelli (Netflix)
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein (A24)
Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté (NEON)
Sinners – Michael P. Shawver (Warner Bros.)
Wicked: For Good – Myron Kerstein (Universal Pictures)
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frankenstein (Netflix)
The Smashing Machine (A24)
Sinners (Warner Bros.)
28 Years Later (Sony Pictures)
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
After the Hunt – Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross (Amazon MGM Studios)
Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat (Netflix)
Jay Kelly – Nicholas Britell (Netflix)
Sinners – Ludwig Göransson (Warner Bros.)
Wicked: For Good – John Powell & Stephen Schwartz (Universal Pictures)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
“I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.)
“Untitled” – The Testament of Ann Lee (TBC)
“Untitled” – Wicked (Universal Pictures)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frankenstein (Netflix)
Hamnet (Focus Features)
Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST SOUND
Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
Frankenstein (Netflix)
Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
Frankenstein (Netflix)
Tron: Ares (Walt Disney Studios)
Superman (Warner Bros.)
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Arco (NEON)
KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
Ne Zha 2 (A24)
Scarlet (Sony Pictures)
Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney Studios)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Alabama Solution (HBO Documentary Films)
Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)
The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)
Seeds (TBC)
2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS Distribution)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
It Was Just an Accident (Luxembourg)
No Other Choice (South Korea)
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sound of Falling (Germany)
