At this point, the final envelope on Oscar night could reveal “1917,” “Parasite,” or “JoJo Rabbit” based on their performance at the guilds. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” may also surprise given its early triumphs at the Globes and Critics Choice. However, its underperformance at BAFTA could mean curtains for its chances.
In the history of the four major guilds, the eventual Best Picture winner has won PGA, DGA or WGA prior to the Academy Awards. 46% of the winners also won SAG ensemble. These awards are the biggest precursors because almost half the Academy consists of actors (the largest branch), producers, directors and writers. Not all PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG voters have Academy membership. Though, many, if not most, Oscar voters belong to one or more guilds. Thus, the overlap can assist in foretelling who wins on Hollywood’s biggest night. “1917” has a slight edge with awards from PGA and DGA. 17 Best Picture winners have that one-two punch. Three films have won Best Picture with a SAG/WGA combination and two have won with a sole WGA award.
When predicting Best Picture, you can live by stats or die by stats. In prior years, some pundits insisted “Birdman” couldn’t win without an editing nomination despite sweeping the guilds. “Spotlight” couldn’t win with only one other Oscar win (screenplay). Without a SAG Ensemble nod, count out “Green Book” and “The Shape of Water.” Yet, they all proved victorious. Is there anything tried and true anymore?
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In the era of the expanded number of Best Picture nominees, if a film won three or more of the big four (PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG Ensemble), they won Best Picture easily. The power of this combo is strong enough to overcome what used to be an iron clad stat – the director nomination. “Argo” swept the guilds and won Best Picture despite the Ben Affleck director snub.
When looking at some of the past decade’s most competitive races, Oscar coverage from other publications tend to overlook genre. Genre often portends the ultimate winner as much as guild awards or Oscar stats such as the track record of films with key nominations in directing, writing, editing or the acting categories. When the term Oscar bait gets tossed around, cinephiles know it refers to period pieces, usually dramas or epics.
Most publications had “The Artist” on lock for Best Picture. Why? Look at its competition – “Midnight in Paris” and “The Descendants.” Contemporary films struggle against typical Oscar bait. “12 Years a Slave” won with only a PGA win and a tie at that. “12 Years a Slave” competed with “Captain Phillips,” a contemporary film, as well as sci-fi titles, “Gravity” and “Her.” In light of the competition, it was clear what film would come out on top. Although “The Help” and “American Hustle”, also period pieces, won SAG Ensemble in 2011 and 2013 respectively; no film has won the Oscar with only a SAG Ensemble win.
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In a very competitive year, “The Shape of Water” defeated “Get Out” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” It may have been possible for “Call Me by Your Name” to surprise given that it technically could be classified as a period drama as films set in the 80s now qualify as period films. When looking at Oscar history, romantic dramas need a historic backdrop to add gravitas: “Forrest Gump” – Vietnam; “The English Patient” – WWII; “Titanic” – well obviously, the sinking of the Titanic. Setting “The Shape of Water” during the Cold War gave it the weight needed to attract votes as opposed to being set during the shoulder pad era.
PGA currently best predicts the Oscar race because this guild determines its winner through preferential ballot just as the Academy does. No other precursor awards vote this way. In looking at the only two years in which the PGA failed to match Best Picture at the Oscars, both “La La Land” and “The Big Short” were not only contemporary films but were comedies. Comedies also tend to struggle, especially contemporary films. Voters find them too slight.
In looking back at Golden Globe nominees for Best Drama and Best Musical or Comedy, 53 films in the drama category have won Best Picture at the Oscars compared to 13 in the other category. What about last year? Of those 13 in the musical or comedy category, the majority of the winners were … period pieces. A period piece or a drama that wins PGA equals catnip for the Academy. “1917” is both. That’s why this Oscar prognosticator is calling for Sam Mendes’ WWI epic to win.
