As great and long overdue as it was to see the Hollywood Foreign Press Association finally disband in 2023, there is a twinge of sadness we can no longer really call the Golden Globe Awards the “drunk uncle” of awards season.
With its diverse group of more than 300 voters, the Globes are attempting to mend their ways. That means it’s (mostly) an end to bizarre nominations and trophies going to the most famous person in the category or whichever studio threw enough money at the HFPA.
Given we’re only three ceremonies into this bold new Globes frontier, it does make predicting the winners a little difficult. The membership is still comprised of a majority of non-US voters and their tastes could be completely different to the precursor season so far. Or they could be looking to predict the Oscars and we see the same winners we’ve had for the last month or so.
We’ll soon know if the Globes play it safe this year and follow the lead of the critics awards or go their own wacky with a stack of shockers that will send Film Twitter into a meltdown. Alas, here are my predictions for the 82nd Golden Globe Awards.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
September 5
Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: The Brutalist
Possible shocker: Nickel Boys
This one is likely coming down to a battle between The Brutalist and Conclave. Both have seen their fair share of success with the critics awards thus far, but the former feels like the more “esteemed” choice and something journalists will go for. That being said, Nickel Boys has picked up a lot of steam lately, so it could be a late-breaking surprise win here.
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Adrian Brody – The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig – Queer
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Will win: Adrien Brody
Should win: Ralph Fiennes
Possible shocker: Sebastian Stan
If The Brutalist is picking up Best Motion Picture – Drama, you’d think Brody would collect this prize too. But the Globes do often love to spread the wealth and we know journalists adore Chalamet. It’s a coin-flip category but I think Brody has the edge. If Brody and Chalamet split the votes, we could see a win for Fiennes or Stan.
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl
Angelina Jolie – Maria
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
Kate Winslet – Lee
Will win: Angelina Jolie
Should win: Nicole Kidman
Possible shocker: Fernanda Torres
With most of her serious Oscar competitors in the Musical/Comedy category, this one should be a cakewalk for Jolie. But that recent BAFTA snub does give pause to the possibility she’s not as strong as we once thought. If that’s the case, we could see a Kidman win or a massive upset for Torres, which would be a huge boost for her lagging Oscar campaign.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Anora
Challengers
Emilia Pérez
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
Will win: Anora
Should win: The Substance
Possible shocker: Wicked
With ten nominations overall, it’s easy to see why most would be predicting Emilia Pérez here. But I can’t shake the feeling voters will be happy to just give it Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language and honour Anora here instead. If there is vote splitting, something like The Substance or Wicked could sail past both of them.
BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Hugh Grant – Heretic
Gabriel LaBelle – Saturday Night
Jesse Plemons – Kinds of Kindness
Glenn Powell – Hit Man
Sebastian Stan – A Different Man
Will win: Hugh Grant
Should win: Sebastian Stan
Possible shocker: Glenn Powell
A decidedly strange category in that five of these six men aren’t really in strong contention for an Oscar nom. Back in the day, you’d likely see Powell take this one, given the HFPA loved to honour hot young actors. Maybe it’s going to Stan as a way to honour both his nominations this year. Eisenberg could happen. But Grant has picked up a lot of strength in recent weeks and could be looking at nabbing his first Oscar nom. Plus we know he’ll give a wicked speech…if he bothers to show up.
BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Amy Adams – Nightbitch
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Zendaya – Challengers
Will win: Mikey Madison
Should win: Demi Moore
Possible shocker: Cynthia Erivo
On the flip side of the male Musical/Comedy category, we have six females who are all vying to make the Academy’s final five. This one is coming down to a tough battle between Madison and Moore. Will they go for the young ingenue and her breakthrough performance or the beloved veteran mounting an epic comeback? I’ll stick with Madison but it’s the category I’m least confident of.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II
Will win: Kieran Culkin
Should win: Yura Borisov
Possible shocker: Guy Pearce
Culkin hasn’t missed a beat all season thus far and this will be the start of his clean sweep of the televised awards. Can I foresee an upset from any of the other five? Nope.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Margaret Qualley – The Substance
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
Will win: Zoe Saldaña
Should win: Ariana Grande
Possible shocker: Margaret Qualley
Two acclaimed (and somewhat co-lead) supporting musical performances face off here. In the HFPA days gone by, Grande would have the edge as the bigger star. And she definitely could still win. It would be a moment that gets the Globes some viral online attention. But it’s hard to ignore the overall Globes love for Emilia Pérez and that bodes well for Saldaña.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker – Anora
Edward Berger – Conclave
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine as Light
Will win: Brady Corbet
Should win: Brady Corbet
Possible shocker: Coralie Fargeat
Given the sheer scope and ambition of his film, Corbet should take this one easily. But if the Globes voters are looking to make headlines, don’t be surprised to see Fargeat or even Kapadia snatch it away.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Peter Straughan – Conclave
Will win: Anora
Should win: Conclave
Possible shocker: Emilia Pérez
Baker shouldn’t be too troubled here, but Straughan has seen plenty of success with the critics thus far, so it could be closer than it appears. Again, if they want to grab media attention, Fargeat could nab this one.
BEST SCORE
Volker Bertelmann – Conclave
Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist
Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot
Clément Ducol and Camille – Emilia Pérez
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Challengers
Han Zimmer – Dune: Part Two
Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: Conclave
Possible shocker: Challengers
It’s difficult to know which way this one is going. With Dune: Part Two ineligible with the Academy, Conclave is the presumed frontrunner for the Oscars. But perhaps Globes voters will feel sorry for Zimmer and give him this trophy as a consolation prize. I could see a surprise Challengers win, but The Brutalist feels like it’s going to have a good night and this will be part of its haul.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Beautiful That Way” – The Last Showgirl
“Compressed/Repress” – Challengers
“El Mal” – Emilia Pérez
“Forbidden Road” – Better Man
“Kiss the Sky” – The Wild Robot
“Mi Camino” – Emilia Pérez
Will win: “El Mal”
Should win: “Compress/Repress”
Possible shocker: “Forbidden Road”
Given its 10 nominations, you’d have to presume one of the Emilia Pérez songs is winning this with popular opinion presuming the preferred track is “El Mal.” But perhaps the two songs split the vote and something else sneaks through. While the U.S. seemingly has little idea who Robbie Williams is, the mostly foreign Globes voters certainly know him and that could bode well for “Forbidden Road.”
BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Moana 2
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Will win: The Wild Robot
Should win: Flow
Possible shocker: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
As much love as there is out there for Flow, it’s hard to see The Wild Robot losing this.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE
All We Imagine As Light (India)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Vermiglio (Italy)
Will win: Emilia Pérez
Should win: All We Imagine As Light
Possible shocker: I’m Still Here
It would be the biggest upset of the night to see Emilia Pérez miss this one. One of the few absolute locks.
CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT
Alien: Romulus
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Deadpool & Wolverine
Gladiator II
Inside Out 2
Twisters
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Will win: Wicked
Should win: Inside Out 2
Possible shocker: Deadpool & Wolverine
I’m still completely unclear on the voting criteria for this category. The Globes website says it’s voted on “based on excellence,” which is as ambiguous as you can get. If it’s purely the biggest box office earned, that would mean Inside Out 2 takes it. But they will likely want to honour Wicked with something this year and this category feels like the place to do so.
The 82nd Golden Globe Awards will air on January 5 at 5pm PT/8pm ET on CBS.
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