In last month’s Best Actor piece, I prophesied Benedict Cumberbatch would be the darling of the critics awards, and that’s certainly been the case in December. Cumberbatch has collected almost triple the wins of his closest rivals and will likely finish this portion of the season with a staggering total of prizes. That could mean a lot or very little. In 2019, Adam Driver was the overwhelming Best Actor favourite with the critics. In 2018, it was Ethan Hawke. As I’m sure you’d be aware, neither went on to win the Oscar. Hawke wasn’t even nominated.
Will Smith remains the frontrunner for the time being, and you will likely expect to see him start collecting prizes once the televised awards begin. He did land a win from the National Board of Review and seems a rock solid chance to win at the Golden Globes. His “overdue” status may be too strong to beat this season. The Academy can’t resist handing out a “career award,” and that’s something Cumberbatch simply doesn’t have just yet.
But the true challenger to Smith’s crown may actually be Andrew Garfield, who capped off a spectacular 2021 with a scene-stealing performance I’m still not quite sure we’re allowed to openly discuss. tick, tick… BOOM! has grown in strength as a broad contender and there’s so much love flying around for Garfield right now. That could be enough to push him to the head of this crowded pack.
While the broader chances of The Tragedy of Macbeth remain unclear, Denzel Washington still feels like a sure bet for his eighth acting nomination. That really leaves that fifth spot wide open to several different possibilities. The Screen Actors Guild might point the way with their nominations in mid-January. I’m sticking with Peter Dinklage for now, but it could just as easily be Nicolas Cage, Leonardo DiCaprio, or Joaquin Phoenix.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
4. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
5. Peter Dinklage – Cyrano (MGM)
IN CONTENTION
Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Nicolas Cage – Pig (Neon)
Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey (Sony Pictures Classics)
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Adam Driver – House of Gucci (MGM)
Jude Hill – Belfast (Focus Features)
Cooper Hoffman – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon (A24)
Simon Rex – Red Rocket (A24)
