The unveiling of the final five Best Actor nominees in late January brought zero surprises. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) still made it in despite lacking SAG and BAFTA nods. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) took that fifth spot from Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) and Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams). And Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) made it a clean sweep of nominations this season.
But then February brought us one little surprise that may or may not be telling of how this final stage of the season is going to play out. Despite 11 nominations for his film, Timothée Chalamet couldn’t keep his winning streak alive and lost the BAFTA to Robert Aramayo (I Swear). It was the first time in 25 years this category went to an actor not nominated for Best Actor at the Academy Awards.
It’s not unlike the BAFTAs to pick a British performer. And I Swear is yet to be released in the U.S., hence it wasn’t eligible for the Oscars. Many thought Chalamet was undeniable here, so does his loss spell a change in the tide? Or is it simply an unexpected anomaly in an otherwise flawless season?
All eyes turn to the Actor Awards this weekend. Working against Chalamet is the fact he won the SAG last year, and no actor has ever won two years in a row. If Chalamet overcomes that stat and wins, consider the race over. But another loss would hardly be great headlines for Chalamet, just as Oscar voting gets underway. Let’s see what happens on Sunday.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (NEON) – CCA, GG
4. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
