Best Actor Predictions (October)

UPDATE: With confirmation from Netflix that Chadwick Boseman’s upcoming performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom will be submitted as a lead performance, he’s now been added here instead of Supporting Actor.

Almost twenty years after his first Oscar win, it’s becoming increasingly likely Anthony Hopkins is gearing up to waltz away with his second. With more eyes getting a glimpse at his heartbreaking performance in The Father, Hopkins is fast becoming an unstoppable frontrunner before the season has even begun.

While we obviously still haven’t seen his performance, Gary Oldman seems a strong chance to nab a nomination for Mank, though his 2018 win for Darkest Hour will likely work against him. Even with Da 5 Bloods debuting back in June, the calls to reward Delroy Lindo’s performance with a nomination remain as strong as ever.

The true dark horse here is Riz Ahmed, whose revelatory performance in Sound of Metal was one of my personal highlights from TIFF last year. With Amazon Studios setting the film for a November release, Ahmed will be in prime position for his first nomination, making him only the third actor of Asian descent and the first Muslim actor nominated in this category.

BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
2. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
4. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
4. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
5. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix)

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
George Clooney – The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Winston Duke – Nine Days (Sony Pictures Classics)
Tom Hanks – News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Max Harwood – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (20th Century Studios)
Tom Holland – Cherry (AppleTV+)
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Dev Patel – The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Trevante Rhodes – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)
Steven Yeun – Minari (A24)