I’ll probably leave getting really deep into Best Actress until January when I’ll have to tackle the impossible task of placing my final nominations predictions. It’s no word of a lie to say there are at least a dozen genuine contenders for the five spots and I think all prognosticators are just going to be hoping to get at least 3 correct this season.
One would say it’s Mikey Madison (Anora) and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) are feeling the safest for nominations right now. They’re both in films likely to score a big tally of nominations across the board. They’ve both nabbed nods from the Golden Globe Awards and the Critics Choice Awards. And both have seen success with nominations/wins elsewhere, particularly Madison who is currently leading with wins from the critics groups.
Angelina Jolie (Maria) hasn’t seen much success with those aforementioned critics groups, but she landed GG and CCA nominations. She’s felt like a lock since the moment it was announced she’d be playing Maria Callas, so it’s hard to see her missing out. The Substance continues to strengthen as a potential bigger contender than anyone initially thought, which bodes well for Demi Moore. She too has those important GG and CCA nods plus love from the Gotham Awards and Indie Spirit Awards.
Are they our solid four competitors with the fifth spot wide open? Yes and no. You could really see a situation where Jolie or Moore miss out, particularly with actresses like Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), and Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) all vying for their spot.
For the moment, my fifth spot goes to Cynthia Erivo, purely on the fact that Wicked has become such a juggernaut and “Defying Gravity” is one of the year’s landmark cinematic moments. It would feel terribly wrong to see Glinda nominated and not Elphaba, but one could say the same for Barbie and Ken last year and look how that turned out. Let’s regroup in a few weeks.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Mikey Madison – Anora (Neon) – Gotham, Spirit, GG, CCA
2. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – EFA, GG, CCA
3. Angelina Jolie – Maria (Netflix) – GG, CCA
4. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) – Gotham, Spirit, GG, CCA
5. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked (Universal Pictures) – GG, CCA
IN CONTENTION
Amy Adams – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, Spirit
Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions) – Gotham, GG
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) – Gotham, CCA
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24) – Gotham, GG
Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
Florence Pugh – We Live in Time (A24)
Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (Sony Pictures Classics) – Gotham
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) – EFA, GG
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG
Kate Winslet – Lee (Roadside Attractions) – GG
Zendaya – Challengers (Amazon MGM Studios) – GG
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