Best Actress Oscars Predictions (January)

After last year’s topsy turvy Best Actress race, this year was looking far more settled. For months now, Kristen Stewart has seemed like the undeniable frontrunner for her ridiculously acclaimed performance in Spencer. Well, in January, the wheels completely fell off Stewart’s campaign and now the battle for Best Actress is the most difficult category to predict this season. Strap in for my attempt to determine the Academy’s final five.

There’s really no definitive explanation as to what the hell happened to Stewart’s chances. And there’ll likely be a hundred analysis pieces that arrive if she is snubbed. She’s scooped the massive majority of wins from the critics groups. However, none came from any “major” association and that was the first sign something was wrong. Stewart then lost the Golden Globe to Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), which wasn’t a huge surprise, but still alarming. But the real death knell arrived when Stewart failed to score a nomination from SAG. She recently followed that up with a snub from BAFTA, which, again, wasn’t a massive surprise, given BAFTA clearly had an aversion to Spencer, but the writing is now abundantly on the wall that her campaign is toast.

We Oscar prognosticators now face a choice whether to accept Stewart is not getting nominated or still cling to hope she can nab a nomination on Tuesday. If any other performer had experienced such a disastrous month before Oscar nominations are announced, we’d consider their campaign to be done. But the overwhelming acclaim behind Stewart makes her lack of a nomination unfathomable. Then again, Toni Collette (Hereditary) and Lupita Nyong’o (Us) were in a similar position, and we know how that turned out.

If Stewart is no longer the frontrunner, who has assumed that position? Well, after that Globe victory, most of us presumed it would be Kidman. But then she failed to nab a nomination from BAFTA, and now I’m not so sure. There’s only one actress who’s scored nominations from all four key groups (BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, and Golden Globe), and that’s Lady Gaga (House of Gucci). Does that make Gaga the frontrunner? Maybe, but Kidman probably has the edge right now. The SAG winner may light the way.

To make this race even more chaotic, we have to consider another ten contenders who all could genuinely land a nomination. Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) has nominations from SAG, Critics Choice, and the Globes, but she oddly couldn’t secure a nod from BAFTA. Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) has the same trio of nominations. Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) has BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Globes, but not SAG. We also have to ponder Golden Globe winner Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), SAG nominee Jennifer Hudson (Respect), and BAFTA nominees Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), Tessa Thompson (Passing), and Emilia Jones (CODA). And maybe even previous Oscar winners Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth). My head hurts.

If you somehow end up doing well predicting this category, it will just be blind luck. There really is no telling which way these cards will fall. Maybe Stewart gets in and revives her seemingly dead campaign. Maybe the Academy favours newcomers like Haim, Zegler, and Reinsve. Maybe Cruz or McDormand nab a nomination without any precursor love. Or maybe the Academy members just fall back on their old ways and all the biopic contenders get in like Kidman, Chastain, and Hudson. At least the confusion will soon be over.

BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
2. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (MGM)
3. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
4. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
5. Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza (MGM)

IN CONTENTION
Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
Jennifer Hudson – Respect (MGM)
Emilia Jones – CODA (Apple TV+)
Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Renate Reinsve – The World Person in the World (Neon)
Kristen Stewart – Spencer (Neon)
Tessa Thompson – Passing (Netflix)
Rachel Zegler – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)