As with many categories this year, four of the five spots for Best Actor have felt sewn up for quite a while now. With nominations from all four major groups (BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes), Will Smith (King Richard) and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) are locks for Oscar nods. With a win at the Globes, Smith is starting to pull to the front of the pack. If he takes SAG (which, let’s face it, seems highly likely), it’s all over.
Despite a baffling snub from his home team at BAFTA, Andrew Garfield (tick, tick… BOOM!) has all but locked up an Oscar nomination too. He’s got a Golden Globe win and nods from SAG and Critics Choice under his belt. And he’s had one hell of a year, so it would be unfathomable for the Academy to snub him as the Brits did. Then again, we probably said the same of Richard Gere in 2002 for Chicago, who also won the Globe, scored a nod from SAG, and was snubbed by BAFTA, and look how that turned out.
We really should have seen it coming, but Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) was also snubbed by BAFTA. Over the course of his stellar career, Washington has earned eight acting Oscar nominations and two wins, yet has confoundingly never been nominated for a BAFTA. Most of us thought Washington doing Shakespeare would be a sure bet to finally win BAFTA’s favour. Alas, it was not to be. But Washington is so clearly beloved by the Academy that it’s hard to see him failing to nab the fourth slot.
So that leaves the fifth spot open for a number of possible contenders. As the wise Erik Anderson of Awards Watch has pointed out, it’s been 41 years since Best Actor didn’t feature at least one first-time nominee. That bodes extremely well for Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), who hasn’t had the most stellar of pre-season runs, but he did nab nominations from Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. Dinklage is so revered and adored in the industry and Cyrano has strengthened in the tech categories in January. That may be enough to see him earn his first Oscar nod.
If that 41-year streak is to be broken, the fifth spot is likely going the way of a previous winner. Leonardo DiCaprio landed a Golden Globe nod and made it into BAFTA’s final five. However, Don’t Look Up performed extremely well with the Brits, so that was hardly surprising. Mahershala Ali nabbed BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations for Swan Song. Javier Bardem scored SAG and Golden Globe nods for Being the Ricardos. And Nicolas Cage collected a swag of critics wins for Pig that may or may not mean anything. I’m sticking with Dinklage, but don’t be surprised to see one of these four take his place.
BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
4. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
5. Peter Dinklage – Cyrano (MGM)
IN CONTENTION
Mahershala Ali – Swan Song (Apple TV+)
Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Nicolas Cage – Pig (Neon)
Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey (Sony Pictures Classics)
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Cooper Hoffman – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon (A24)
Simon Rex – Red Rocket (A24)
