Best Actress Predictions (October)

With her typically phenomenal performance in Nomadland, Frances McDormand seems all but certain to secure her fifth Oscar nomination. However, with her win in 2018 for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, it might simply be too soon to see her walk away with a third Academy Award.

For the time being, I’ve stuck Viola Davis as the frontrunner on pedigree alone, but we’ll naturally need to wait for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom to debut. Davis’ performance as a pioneer of African-American blues puts both Audra Day and Jennifer Hudson in a difficult position, as it’s hard to imagine the Academy nominating three music biopic performances in the same year. Then again, stranger things have happened.

Elsewhere, early reaction to Michelle Pfeiffer’s performance in French Exit has been strong and we all know she’s long overdue for her fourth nomination. With Focus Features finally setting a Christmas release date for Promising Young Woman, we’ll see if the Sundance buzz translates into a second nomination for Carey Mulligan.

BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
2. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
4. Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)
5. Jennifer Hudson – Respect (Universal Pictures) [Moved to August 2021]

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Nicole Beharie – Miss Juneteenth (Vertical Entertainment)
Rachel Brosnahan – I’m Your Woman (Amazon Studios)
Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
Han Ye-ri – Minari (A24)
Sofia Loren – The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Elisabeth Moss – Shirley (NEON)
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Michelle Pfieffer – French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
Evan Rachel Wood – Kajillionaire (Focus Features)