Best Director Oscars Predictions (February)

Chloé Zhao winning Best Director is the closest thing we have to a lock this year. Not to jinx her chances, but it now seems unfathomable she won’t become the second female filmmaker in history to win this category. With a staggering total of critics wins we simply haven’t seen before, the Academy would look mighty foolish not to follow suit.

But will the Academy make history with more than just one female director nominated? And could they even shatter that record and select three? When the HFPA nominated Zhao, Emerald Fennell, and Regina King at the Golden Globes, they showed it could be done. While many have long suspected King is joining Zhao in the Oscar line-up, the possibility of a Fennell nomination grows stronger by the day.

Look, I want to believe the Academy could be so terrifically progressive to give three out of their five slots to female filmmakers. We know they’ve made steps to diversify their membership ranks, but it’s still dominated by older white males who may turn their nose up at the themes and style of Promising Young Woman. Fennell is a shoo-in for a nomination (and possible win) at DGA for First-Time Feature Film, but if she also claims a nod for the main Feature Film category, her case for an Oscar nod strengthens considerably.

While I’d love to see Fennell make it in, I’m going to continue holding on to my hope for Lee Isaac Chung. Chung would be the first Asian-American nominated for Best Director and the buzz surrounding Minari only grows stronger by the day. He wasn’t nominated at the Globes, but we know how haphazardly the HFPA handled Minari.

BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
2. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix)
3. Lee Isaac Chung – Minari (A24)
4. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
5. Regina King – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Paul Greengrass – News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Florian Zeller – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)