Best Original Screenplay Oscars Predictions (February)

Will the Academy award Aaron Sorkin with his second screenwriting Oscar? Or are they gearing up to acknowledge a first time nominee? Sorkin seems the obvious choice here, especially if The Trial of the Chicago 7 takes home Best Picture. But there’s appears to be growing support for a win for Emerald Fennell.

We’ve seen Fennell win 17 awards from the critics groups so far (more than half that of her closest competitor) and a WGA nomination for Promising Young Woman all but secured her spot in the Academy’s final five. If she makes it into the Best Director line-up and her film nabs a Best Picture nomination, the Academy could be keen to award her somewhere else.

You can essentially lock in both films for nominations here, and a nod for Lee Isaac Chung seems highly probably, even without a WGA nomination where Minari was ineligible. There’s a major vulnerability factor surrounding Jack Fincher, especially if Mank underperforms. But let’s just consider him a safe bet for now.

That leaves the fifth spot wide open to any number of contenders. Sound of Metal scored a WGA nod, which is a huge boost for Abraham Marder and Darius Marder’s chances. The film is coming home strong in the final leg of nomination voting, but so is Judas and the Black Messiah, which also nabbed a WGA nom and has been met with rave reviews after its Sundance premiere. Flip a coin on this one.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin
2. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell
3. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung
4. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Will Berson and Shaka King (screenplay), Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas (story by)

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Netflix)
Radha Blank
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman
Palm Springs (NEON)
Andy Siara
Soul (Disney)
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)