Best Director Oscars Predictions (January)

Is there any stopping the unstoppable force that is Chloé Zhao? At this point, Zhao has won more critics awards than Bong Joon-ho last year, and there are still over a dozen groups yet to announce their winners. While there’s still a long way to go until Oscar night, Zhao is firming as the first true lock of the season.

For the longest time, it looked like David Fincher could be Zhao’s strongest competition. And that absolutely still could be the case. But Netflix are pushing The Trial of the Chicago 7 so relentlessly and we have to start taking Aaron Sorkin very seriously as a contender here. If Chicago 7 takes Best Picture, we’re probably looking at a split victory and Zhao still takes Best Director. But the Academy showed a willingness to award both categories to the same film last year, so it’s still plausible Sorkin snatches it away from Zhao.

Naturally, it still remains unclear how the remainder of awards season will respond to Mank. It could become the most-nominated film at the Oscars or just a contender in a few tech categories. Once upon a time, Fincher seemed a sure-bet for a Best Director nomination, but a snub in the same vein as Bradley Cooper or Ben Affleck could easily be on the cards.

Keep an eye on Emerald Fennell. If the Academy truly love Promising Young Woman, she could easily snatch a Best Director nomination. She’s collected numerous “debut director” style awards with the critics groups and the calls to reward her with an Oscar nod are growing louder. It seems unfathomable the Academy would be so bold as to nominate three female filmmakers in the same year, so perhaps Fennell could replace King as the actress-turned-director nominated this year.

BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
2. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
3. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix)
4. Regina King – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
5. Lee Isaac Chung – Minari (A24)

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Lee Daniels – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Pete Docter – Soul (Disney)
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Paul Greengrass – News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Eliza Hittman – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Darius Marder – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Florian Zeller – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)