Best Original Screenplay Oscars Predictions (January)

The big mover this month is Emerald Fennell’s breakthrough screenplay for Promising Young Woman. Fennell has been cleaning up with the critics groups and even managing to nab wins when the category isn’t split into Original and Adapted. As with any of the critics wins, it may mean very little, but Fennell’s Oscar nomination feels all but locked in.

Aaron Sorkin remains in the frontrunner position for The Trial of the Chicago 7, especially given its strong case for Best Picture. If it nabs the big one, you’d have to assume Sorkin picks up an Oscar for screenwriting as well. Then again, he’s already in possession of such an award for The Social Network, so the Academy could look to reward a fresh face like Fennell.

Now that it’s been widely seen, Judas and the Black Messiah moves up into the top 5 this month. Its pertinent screenplay is loaded with explosive dialogue, impassioned speeches, and allegories to modern society. It feels like the kind of fodder Academy love to acknowledge, especially if the film sneaks into the Best Picture lineup.

Keep an eye on Sound of Metal. Thanks to a huge campaign push from Amazon Studios, the film just keeps picking up steam and could prove to be a genuine contender across the board. If the Academy really fall in love with Darius Marder’s brilliant work, they could be looking to honour the film’s screenplay as well.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin
2. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell
3. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung
4. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Will Berson and Shaka King (screenplay), Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas (story by)

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Ammonite (Neon)
Francis Lee
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Netflix)
Radha Blank
I’m Your Woman
Julia Hart, Jordan Horowitz
Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)
Sam Levinson
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman
On the Rocks (AppleTV+)
Sofia Coppola
Palm Springs (NEON)
Andy Siara
Soul (Disney)
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers
Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)