Best Original Score Oscars Predictions (January)

With a staggering total of 17 Best Original Score wins thus far (and potentially plenty more to come), Soul is the clear favourite amongst the critics this season. It seems unlikely the Academy won’t agree, but there’s a long way to go yet. Once the Academy drops its shortlist on February 9, we’ll finally have confirmation if Jon Batiste will be eligible to join Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross as the official nominees.

Thanks to Variety, we now have confirmation several scores have already been ruled ineligible, courtesy of the Academy’s rules stating a score must contain at least 60% of fully original music. That means the scores of Judas and the Black Messiah, One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal, and The United States vs. Billie Holiday are now officially out of the running.

Outside of the double nominations for Reznor and Ross and a likely nod for eight-time nominee James Newton Howard, the other two spots seem wide-open. I’m somewhat wary of including Emile Mosseri’s gorgeous score for Minari (it may be too understated for the Academy), but its recent win at the Hollywood Music in Media Awards was a huge boost for its campaign.

We’ve consistently seen Ludwig Göransson’s Tenet score pop up in the critics’ nominations plus three wins thus far. While a question mark hovers over the chances of Tenet elsewhere, the chances of a nod for Göransson’s score grow stronger by the week. He moves back into the top 5…for now.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE PREDICTIONS:
1. Soul (Disney)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
2. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
James Newton Howard
3. Mank (Netflix)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
4. Minari (A24)
Emile Mosseri
5. Tenet (Warner Bros.)
Ludwig Göransson

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Ammonite (NEON)
Volker Bertelmann, Dustin O’Halloran
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Terence Blanchard
Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
David Fleming and Hans Zimmer
Let Them All Talk (HBO Max)
Thomas Newman
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Branford Marsalis
The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
Mulan (Disney)
Henry Gregson-Williams
Over the Moon (Netflix)
Steven Price
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Daniel Pemberton