Now that Licorice Pizza has been seen and adored (91% on Rotten Tomatoes), Paul Thomas Anderson solidifies his spot at the top of the race for Best Original Screenplay. After four unsuccessful screenwriting nominations, this might finally be Anderson’s year. The film could prove a formidable contender for Best Picture, but a screenplay win is starting to feel almost inevitable.
Two other late contenders finally premiered and neither received a particularly glowing response from critics. Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up currently sits on 55% on Rotten Tomatoes with a decidedly mixed bag of those who adored it with those who loathed it. That being said, Vice saw a similar critical response and still waltzed away with eight nominations. If nothing else, a nod for McKay’s screenplay still seems fairly likely.
Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos faired better with a current score of 71%. Much of the criticism seems targeted on Sorkin’s direction, while there is strong praise for his screenwriting. That bodes well for Sorkin’s chances here, especially given his history with the Academy who’ve dealt four nominations his way. A fifth nod is materialising on the horizon.
But I still can’t shake this nagging feeling an international film will sneak into the fifth spot. Films like A Hero and The Worst Person in the World certainly deserve to be here. Perhaps once that category finds its frontrunner we’ll know which film is looking strongest to also score a screenplay nod. That’s if a frontrunner ever emerges in that ridiculously strong field.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Belfast (Focus Features)
Kenneth Branagh
3. King Richard (Warner Bros)
Zach Baylin
4. Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Aaron Sorkin
5. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Adam McKay, David Sirota
IN CONTENTION
C’mon C’mon (A24)
Mike Mills
The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Roman Coppola
The Hand of God (Netflix)
Paolo Sorrentino
A Hero (Amazon Studios)
Asghar Farhadi
Mass (Bleeker Street)
Fran Kranz
Nine Days (Sony Pictures Classics)
Edson Oda
Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar
Red Rocket (A24)
Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch
Spencer (Neon)
Steven Knight
The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt
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