We’ve arrived at the drunk uncle of awards season. It’s always difficult to predict what the nefarious Hollywood Foreign Press Association will do every year, especially during one of the longest and most bizarre seasons in history. This year’s ceremony has been marred by the HFPA receiving a wave of negative press after an LA Times piece revealed the often-dirty practices of its membership.
None of this was particularly surprising to those of us who’ve followed awards season for decades. It’s long been a running joke in Hollywood that studios can essentially buy a Golden Globe nomination (and maybe even a win) with the right perks and swag thrown the way of HFPA members. The association has been in dire need of an overhaul for years, but we know it will never happen.
It was also wildly embarrassing for the HFPA they managed to snub Black-led films like Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami in the Best Motion Picture – Drama category. But, as we’ve since learnt through Variety, the HFPA hasn’t included any Black members in its ranks in two decades, which explains a hell of a lot. The inevitable “we’re going to change” tweet from the HFPA has appeared, but you’d be wise not to hold your breath on that occurring anytime soon.
With so much criticism and negativity surrounding the Golden Globes, those outside the awards bubble may wonder why we all give them so much credit and attention. The sad reality is the Globes play a huge role in shaping the Oscars race, particularly this year where nomination voting will begin five days after the ceremony. It offers contenders their moment to give a great speech as one big consideration push for Academy members. We can bemoan these awards until we’re blue in the face. They play their part in this game, whether we like it or not.
We’ll soon know if the HFPA play it safe this year and follow the lead of the critics awards or go their own wacky with a stack of shockers that will send Film Twitter into a meltdown. Alas, here are my predictions for the 78th Golden Globe Awards.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: Nomadland
Possible shocker: Promising Young Woman
In recent years, the HFPA have given this award to bombastic, showy films (1917, Bohemian Rhapsody, Three Billboards), so history would suggest Nomadland will be too subdued and subtle for their tastes. They love Aaron Sorkin and The Trial of the Chicago 7 is their kind of film. But if they’re really looking to grab headlines, don’t be surprised to see Promising Young Woman snatch it away.
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Gary Oldman – Mank
Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian
Will win: Chadwick Boseman
Should win: Riz Ahmed
Possible shocker: Tahar Rahim
While Anthony Hopkins has never won a Golden Globe (seven unsuccessful nominations) and The Father picked up key nods in Motion Picture – Drama and Screenplay, this seems to be the moment the Chadwick Boseman train will depart the station for his eventual Oscar win and never look back.
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Will win: Carey Mulligan
Should win: Carey Mulligan
Possible shocker: Vanessa Kirby
The HFPA can’t make a bad decision here, and, frankly, you could make a strong case for any of the five to win. But the overwhelming buzz is with Carey Mulligan, particularly given Promising Young Woman scored nominations in Motion Picture – Drama, Director, and Screenplay. This will be the point her Oscar campaign truly begins.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Hamilton
Music
Palm Springs
The Prom
Will win: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Should win: Palm Springs
Possible shocker: Music
The original Borat lost this category to Dreamgirls back in 2006. In a curious twist of fate, its sequel could also lose to a musical many would argue shouldn’t even be nominated. The debate over whether Hamilton is a “film” has raged since it dropped on Disney+ in July. While it would be bold of the HFPA to pick the filmed stage production, let’s just assume they’ll play it safe with Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. In all honesty, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them make a bold choice by giving it to the much-maligned Music.
BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden – The Prom
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton
Dev Patel – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg – Palm Springs
Will win: Lin-Manuel Miranda
Should win: Andy Samberg
Possible shocker: James Corden
There’s every likelihood Sacha Baron Cohen is taking this, but the fact he won this category back in 2006 for the exact same character gives me pause. Do the HFPA really want to repeat themselves? I feel they’d rather reward Cohen’s dramatic supporting turn in The Trial of the Chicago 7 and give this one to the musical maestro Lin-Manuel Miranda instead.
BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kate Hudson – Music
Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot
Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma.
Will win: Maria Bakalova
Should win: Maria Bakalova
Possible shocker: Rosamund Pike
As one of the only ceremony thus far to nominate Maria Bakalova in the lead category, it seems logical the HFPA will follow through and give her the award as well. The category is light on competition (especially with Meryl Streep snubbed for The Prom), so this feels like one of the few locks of the night. Though, a win for the fabulous Rosamund Pike wouldn’t be a total surprise.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto – The Little Things
Bill Murray – On the Rocks
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
Will win: Sacha Baron Cohen
Should win: Daniel Kaluuya
Possible shocker: Jared Leto
Hands down, this is the toughest category of the night. You could make an argument for at least four of the nominees to take it home. While Daniel Kaluuya has been building buzz since Judas and the Black Messiah debuted at Sundance, it may have arrived too late to truly sway voters. Leslie Odom Jr. will likely be acknowledged in Best Original Song, so he’s out. Sacha Baron Cohen feels more logical, especially if he doesn’t win for Borat. But don’t be surprised to see Jared Leto steal this in a move reminiscent of Aaron Taylor Johnson’s unfathomable win in 2016 for Nocturnal Animals. Few anticipated Leto even being nominated. Could the HFPA go one step further?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – The Father
Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Helena Zengel – News of the World
Will win: Glenn Close
Should win: Olivia Colman
Possible shocker: Helena Zengel
Many wrote off Glenn Close when Hillbilly Elegy was savaged by the critics, but she’s scored nominations here and at SAG, putting her back in the driver’s seat for her long-overdue Oscar win. The HFPA love Close and it seems likely they’ll award the veteran actress with her fourth Globe. It could also easily go to Amanda Seyfried, which would be a much-needed boost to her Oscar campaign after her SAG snub. But we can’t forget this is the foreign press and they may be looking to reward an international performer somewhere, meaning Zengel is a strong chance for a shock upset.
BEST DIRECTOR
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
David Fincher – Mank
Regina King – One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland
Will win: Chloé Zhao
Should win: Chloé Zhao
Possible shocker: Emerald Fennell
You’d be mad to bet against anyone but Chloé Zhao in this category. And the HFPA would be foolish to pick anyone else. She’d be the first female filmmaker to take this prize since Barbra Streisand in 1983 and that little factoid will give the HFPA some much-needed good publicity. And, more importantly, Zhao damn well deserves to win.
BEST SCREENPLAY
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of Chicago 7
Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: Promising Young Woman
Possible shocker: The Father
I’d like to be brave and think Promising Young Woman can take this, but the Aaron Sorkin love from the HFPA is just too strong. He’s the most-nominated screenwriter in the history of this category (they even nominated him for Charlie Wilson’s War) and his third win would tie Sorkin with Robert Bolt and Quentin Tarantino for the most victories.
BEST SCORE
Mank
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Soul
Tenet
Will win: Soul
Should win: Soul
Possible shocker: The Midnight Sky
All the momentum is with Soul to take this one and it would be the first animated film to win this category since Up in 2009. In saying that, if they feel the need to make sure Mank doesn’t leave empty-handed, this feels like the most likely category. And, hey, they’ll still be giving it to the same composers anyway. But it’s never wise to discount Alexandre Desplat at the Globes. 11 nominations and two wins highlight the HDPA’s adoration for the composer. If Soul and Mank split the votes, Desplat could be looking at his third win.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Fight For You” – Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice” – The Trial of the Chicago 7
“lo Sì (Seen)” – The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” – One Night in Miami
“Tigress & Tweed” – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Will win: “Speak Now”
Should win: “Speak Now”
Possible shocker: “Tigress & Tweed”
This is always an impossible category to predict, given the HFPA have made some genuinely bizarre choices here over the years (remember Madonna’s victory in 2011 for “Masterpiece?”). They’ve managed to match the eventual Academy Award winner four times in the last five years, so perhaps they’ll play it safe with the Oscar frontrunner “Speak Now.” Then again, they do love Diane Warren (she won in 2010 for a track from Burlesque the Oscars ignored), so don’t count “lo Sì (Seen)” out.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Will win: Soul
Should win: Wolfwalkers
Possible shocker: The Croods: A New Age
It’s always wise to bet on Pixar, so you’d assume Soul is taking this. That being said, the HFPA rejected Toy Story 4 last year in favour of Missing Link. If they’re looking to make another daring choice, Wolfwalkers is right there waiting. Go on, HFPA. Be bold.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Another Round
La Llorona
The Life Ahead
Minari
Two of Us
Will win: Minari
Should win: Minari
Possible shocker: The Life Ahead
After the slew of bad press the HFPA received for relegating Minari to their foreign language category and ruling it ineligible for Motion Picture – Drama, you’d assume they’ll be looking to improve their image by awarding the American-made film with a victory here. That being said, the Minari backlash may have little impact on voters and they may choose to align with the assumed Oscar frontrunner Another Round instead. This is one of the most interesting categories of the night.
The 78th Golden Globe Awards will air on February 28 at 5pm PT/8pm ET on NBC with Tina Fey and Amy Poehler returning as hosts.
