Best Picture Oscars Predictions (January)

As expected, Nomadland continues to pick up several Best Picture awards from the critics. It nabbed Best Film at the Gotham Awards, scored a mention in the AFI’s top ten films list, and was named Best Picture by the Online Film Critics Society. But there’s still mounting concern the film isn’t “showy” enough for the Academy and its Best Picture campaign may suffer the same “nothing happens” rhetoric that befell 2018’s Roma.

With the growing buzz surrounding Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 and a massive campaign push from Netflix, I finally relent and move the film into my #1 spot this month. While it was quite shocking to see it miss a mention in the National Board of Review’s top ten films (especially given The Midnight Sky somehow made it in), it’s likely just a minor blip and the film is indeed firming as our frontrunner.

While Da 5 Bloods was given a major boost when it was declared Best Film by the National Board of Review, we have to remember this winner has only matched Best Picture once in the last ten years (Green Book in 2018). It helps keep the film in the conversation, which it desperately needs, given its the only contender released outside the usual awards season bubble. For that reason, it moves back into my top ten this month.

It’s unlikely we’re actually going to see ten films nominated this year (it still hasn’t happened since voting rules changed in 2011), so consider News of the World and Promising Young Woman as outliers at this stage. However, the latter has picked up the 2nd highest number of Best Picture wins with the critics, so never say never.

BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
3. One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
4. Minari (A24)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
6. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
7. Mank (Netflix)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
9. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
10. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
First Cow (A24)
Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Soul (Disney)
Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)