Every awards season, it’s always important to remember Film Twitter does not always represent the tastes and opinions of Academy members. Now that more people have seen Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast, Film Twitter has seemingly declared war on the frontrunner and seemed determined to bring it down. Maybe some voters do pay attention to online chatter, but the bulk of members will make up their own minds about Belfast when the time comes. It still sits in the top spot this month, regardless of what you’re hearing online.
That being said, Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog is certainly beginning to surge during the early stages of the precursor portion of the season. It’s picked up three Best Picture wins from the film critics groups of New York (online), Boston (online), and Philadelphia and will surely net plenty of nominations from Critics Choice. The film currently sits on 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, so it could be the main rival to snatch the crown from Belfast.
With both West Side Story and Licorice Pizza receiving a glowing reaction from critics (93% and 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, respectively), they sneak up higher in my top ten this month. Given the Academy already awarded Best Picture to an adaptation of West Side Story in 1961, Steven Spielberg’s version probably faces an uphill battle to repeat this success. Licorice Pizza is certainly one to keep an eye on. It’s so damn bubbly and charming, which makes it a formidable contender.
Given there’s a guaranteed ten nominations spots this year, it’s anyone’s guess if that leaves the door open to contenders that would have struggled to score a nod under the old five nominations ballot. This likely bodes well for something as heartwarming as Sian Heder’s CODA, which sneaks into the top ten this month after a strong performance during the preseason thus far. Likewise with Lin-Manuel Miranda’s tick, tick… BOOM!, which has stronger than expected reviews and a lot of love from the critics groups.
Since the race for Best International Feature Film is so strong this year, It would be embarrassing if an international film can’t also nab a Best Picture nomination. With ten spots on offer to every member, there’s no excuse not to honour a film not in the English language. However, much like Parasite in 2019, one film will ultimately need to become the consensus choice to ensnare enough votes to snatch a spot. With surprise (but deserved) Best Picture wins from the New York Film Critics Circle and the Boston Society of Film Critics, perhaps we have to give serious consideration to Drive My Car becoming a Best Picture nominee.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Belfast (Focus Features)
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. King Richard (Warner Bros.)
4. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
6. Dune (Warner Bros.)
7. CODA (Apple TV+)
8. C’mon C’mon (A24)
9. tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
10. Drive My Car (Sideshow)
IN CONTENTION
Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Flee (Neon)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
A Hero (Amazon Studios)
The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Mass (Bleeker Street)
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Passing (Netflix)
Spencer (Neon)
Titane (Neon)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
