Best Production Design Oscars Predictions (February)

In last month’s piece, I suggested Belfast might nab a surprise Best Production Design nomination due to its status as one of the Best Picture frontrunners. Well, I was almost correct. As it turned out, it was The Power of the Dog that snuck in and scored a nod. Given the film hadn’t earned production design nominations from BAFTA, Critics Choice, or the Art Directors Guild, its nomination from the Academy really showed its overall strength.

This remains a tight two-horse race between Dune (which just won a major prize from the Set Decorators Society of America) and Nightmare Alley. It’s really anyone’s guess which way the Academy will go. For much of awards season, we’ve presumed Dune will sweep the technical categories. And it still likely will. However, Production Design is probably the one category where it faces the toughest battle. The period noir designs of Nightmare Alley are usually more to the taste of the Academy than sci-fi epics, so I think it has the slightest of edges right now.

There’s a slim chance Dune and Nightmare Alley could split the votes and either West Side Story or The Tragedy of Macbeth slips through for an upset win. With West Side Story now more accessible on Disney+, it could certainly grow in strength over the next few weeks. And there’s been a groundswell of love for the stark yet stunning production design of The Tragedy of Macbeth for months.

So what will shape this race before Oscar voting commences on March 17? The Art Directors Guild Awards will take place on March 5, while BAFTA and Critics Choice will reveal their winners on March 13. Dune and Nightmare Alley are in separate categories at the ADG Awards, so all eyes will be on BAFTA and Critics Choice to see which way they go.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN PREDICTIONS:
1. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Tamara Deverell (production designer), Shane Vieau (set decorator)
2. Dune (Warner Bros.)
Patrice Vermette (production designer), Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos (set decorators)
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Adam Stockhausen (production designer), Rena DeAngelo (set decorator)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Stefan Dechant (production designer), Nancy Haigh (set decorator)
5. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Grant Major (production designer), Amber Richards (set decorator)