Unlike the sweeps of Kieran Culkin and Ke Huy Quan of the last two years, the race for Best Supporting Actor still feels wide open at this point. The nominations for the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards chose the same six actors in Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), so we’re likely looking at our final five Oscar noms from this list. But who misses out? Or will there be a wildcard pick?
del Toro is leading with the critics groups, including wins from big groups like the National Board of Review and New York. Penn and Skarsgård have nabbed a handful of critics wins, too. Mescal and Elordi haven’t seen such luck, but they’re both in strong overall contenders, so they appear fairly safe. And Jay Kelly has seemingly run out of puff, so Sandler feels like the one who misses out with the Academy. But that would make this all far too simple. Maybe it is. Maybe it’s not.
That fifth spot could instead go to someone on the periphery, like either Miles Caton or Delroy Lindo, if Sinners really sweeps. Or it could be a family affair, and Alexander Skarsgård sneaks in for Pillion, especially given A24 seems to be making a last-minute push for the film. There’s a lot of love out there for Train Dreams, which could bode well for William H. Macy and his small but deeply memorable role. Maybe the SAG noms will clear things up on January 7.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (NEON) – CCA, GG, Gotham
2. Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG, Gotham
3. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG
4. Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features) – CCA, GG
5. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (Netflix) – Gotham – CCA, GG
IN CONTENTION
Jonathan Bailey – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
Miles Caton – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
Akira Emoto – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
Ben Foster – Christy (Black Bear)
Jacobi Jupe – Hamnet (Focus Features)
Delroy Lindo – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
William H. Macy – Train Dreams (Netflix)
Josh O’Connor – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Lewis Pullman – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Netflix) – CCA, GG, Gotham
Alexander Skarsgård – Pillion (A24)
Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
