Best Supporting Actor Oscars Predictions (February)

As we prepare for the Golden Globes this Sunday and the Oscar nominations announcement less than two weeks later, Best Supporting Actor still feels entirely up in the air. Three spots seem locked, but who wins is still an epic mystery.

Sacha Baron Cohen, Daniel Kaluuya, and Leslie Odom Jr. all secured Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice nominations. And you’d expect to see all three repeat at BAFTA, especially given the home crowd advantage for Cohen and Kaluuya. It would be unconscionable to see any miss out on an Oscar nod. But who’s likely to win?

For this month, I’m moving Cohen into the lead. If The Trial of the Chicago 7 takes Best Picture, there’s every likelihood it collects an acting win along with it. Cohen seems probable to collect this prize at the Globes and a humble, classy speech would do wonders for his campaign. After all, the Academy loves to reward a comedian who delivers a dramatic turn.

With a haul of 15 wins from the critics group, Paul Raci has been the clear favourite during the pre-season. Can that translate into an Oscar nod for such a previously-unknown performer? Raci couldn’t sneak in at the Globes or SAG and that might be telling for his ultimate fate with the Academy. It’s still entirely possible and I’m going to remain faithful, but Oscar voters could easily pick a bigger name in Raci’s place.

That big name could easily be Jared Leto, who came from absolutely nowhere to snatch nominations at the Golden Globes and SAG. That SAG nom shows huge potential support from the actors’ branch of the Academy, which could get him across the line. Strangely, Leto wasn’t longlisted by BAFTA, so there’ll be no love for him there.

Don’t be surprised if that fifth slot goes to a performance we haven’t seen pop up anywhere else as yet. Maybe David Strathairn, if the Nomadland love is super strong. Possibly one of Cohen’s castmates like Mark Rylance or Frank Langella. And it’s never wise to underestimate the love for Bill Murray and Stanley Tucci.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
2. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
3. Leslie Odom Jr – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Bo Burnham – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Charles Dance – Mank (Netflix)
Brian Dennehy – Driveways (FilmRise)
Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Bill Murray – On the Rocks (AppleTV+)
Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
David Strathairn – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Stanley Tucci – Supernova (Bleecker Street)
Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)