With just over 25 wins from the critics groups for his breakout performance in The Power of the Dog, Kodi Smit-McPhee is the clear winner of the precursor season in the Best Supporting Actor race. While there are plenty of past performers who’ve been in a similar position and still failed to nab an Oscar nomination, the fact Smit-McPhee has scored the quartet of nominations from SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes (which he won) all but secures his Oscar nod.
Troy Kotsur has also landed all four nominations plus a win at the Gotham Awards for his heartwarming performance in CODA. The film has really strengthened in the final stretch of the nomination race and now seems certain to score nominations for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay, which only solidifies Kotsur’s chances at an Oscar nod.
While Ciarán Hinds is missing a SAG nom (maybe due to the fact he’s technically nominated in the ensemble category), he has scored nominations from BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes. Awarding a veteran with their first Oscar nomination is an opportunity the Academy rarely resists, so he feels safe in the top five.
That leaves the final two spots open to all sorts of possibilities. Jamie Dornan has scored noms from Critics Choice and the Golden Globes, but I feel he’ll be overlooked in favour of his more-seasoned co-star. Ben Affleck’s SAG nomination was a surprise and a good boost for his campaign, but there’s just no buzz around him this season. Mike Faist and Jesse Plemons both earned surprise BAFTA nods, but that came after Oscar nomination voting was closed. Plemons is highly respected in the industry, so I could see him sneaking in. If West Side Story overperforms, Faist could steal a spot.
But I think the Academy will fall back on honouring previous nominees in the form of Jared Leto and Bradley Cooper. Leto’s over-the-top performance has been wildly divisive, but it is highly memorable. Given his SAG nod, he’s clearly got the support of the acting branch and House of Gucci seems likely to overperform. As for fellow SAG nominee Cooper, it’s hard to argue with his history at the Oscars. His performance in Licorice Pizza is brief, but the Academy loves him, so I think he nabs that final spot.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Troy Kostur – CODA (Apple TV+)
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features)
4. Jared Leto – House of Gucci (MGM)
5. Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
IN CONTENTION
Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar (Amazon Studios)
David Alvarez – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Jon Bernthal – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Anders Danielsen Lie – The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
Jamie Dornan – Belfast (Focus Features)
Mike Faist – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Jason Isaacs – Mass (Bleecker Street)
Robin de Jesus – tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
Richard Jenkins – The Humans (A24)
Al Pacino – House of Gucci (MGM)
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Timothy Spall – Spencer (Neon)
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