While the other three acting categories are open to all sorts of possibilities, the five nominees for Best Supporting Actress feel fairly set in stone before Tuesday’s nominations announcement. That’s not to say there may not be a surprise nod from nowhere, but I’m feeling far more confident with my picks in this category than elsewhere.
Both Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) and Caitríona Balfe (Belfast) have picked up nominations from all four of the major groups i.e. BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice. DeBose has collected the lion’s share of wins with the critics groups and a win at the Globes, so she feels like the frontrunner right now. But if Belfast takes Best Picture, it may just take an acting win with it, meaning Balfe is firmly in this race.
Then we have our trio of actresses who each earned nominations from three of the four major groups. Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) oddly missed out with BAFTA. Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) was overlooked by SAG (though she is nominated in the ensemble category). And Ruth Negga (Passing) is missing a nod from Critics Choice. I think the overall strength of The Power of the Dog and King Richard is enough to secure Dunst (though her BAFTA snub is concerning) and Ellis in this race, but Negga is definitely vulnerable.
She’s likely to be the only nomination Passing receives, which isn’t exactly a rarity, but the lack of an overall profile for the film doesn’t help her campaign. Ironically, Negga has been in this situation before. In 2016, she was nominated for Best Actress for Loving, which was the film’s only nomination, so I think she can do it again.
But if the Academy decides to look elsewhere, it may be Judi Dench. She hasn’t nabbed a major nomination this season, but it’s never wise to discount a dame. Dench is the heart and soul of Belfast, so it could happen if the film really sweeps the nominations. Also in the hunt are Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), who scored a SAG nod, Ann Dowd (Mass), who nabbed nominations from BAFTA and Critics Choice, and Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), who expectedly scored a nod from BAFTA. If there’s a surprise waiting in the wings, it’s one of these four.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
2. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features)
3. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
4. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
5. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix)
IN CONTENTION
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Toni Collette – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Judi Dench – Belfast (Focus Features)
Ann Dowd – Mass (Bleeker Street)
Kathryn Hunter – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Marlee Matlin – CODA (Apple TV+)
Rita Moreno – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
